California's 6th congressional district, redrawn after recent reapportionment, features Democratic voter registration advantages and suburban Sacramento demographics that favor the party in general elections. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced independent incumbent Kevin Kiley against Democrat Richard Pan, with multiple Democratic contenders splitting the vote but still signaling strong underlying support. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, consistent with historical patterns in similar battleground districts. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these structural factors, though a sharp national Republican surge, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or turnout anomalies could narrow the margin before November voting concludes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$39,610 交易量
$39,610 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
4%
$39,610 交易量
$39,610 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$16,751 交易量
94%
共和党
$23,261 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district, redrawn after recent reapportionment, features Democratic voter registration advantages and suburban Sacramento demographics that favor the party in general elections. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced independent incumbent Kevin Kiley against Democrat Richard Pan, with multiple Democratic contenders splitting the vote but still signaling strong underlying support. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, consistent with historical patterns in similar battleground districts. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these structural factors, though a sharp national Republican surge, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or turnout anomalies could narrow the margin before November voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$39,610结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district, redrawn after recent reapportionment, features Democratic voter registration advantages and suburban Sacramento demographics that favor the party in general elections. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced independent incumbent Kevin Kiley against Democrat Richard Pan, with multiple Democratic contenders splitting the vote but still signaling strong underlying support. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, consistent with historical patterns in similar battleground districts. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these structural factors, though a sharp national Republican surge, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or turnout anomalies could narrow the margin before November voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$39,610结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 6th congressional district, redrawn after recent reapportionment, features Democratic voter registration advantages and suburban Sacramento demographics that favor the party in general elections. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced independent incumbent Kevin Kiley against Democrat Richard Pan, with multiple Democratic contenders splitting the vote but still signaling strong underlying support. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, consistent with historical patterns in similar battleground districts. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these structural factors, though a sharp national Republican surge, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or turnout anomalies could narrow the margin before November voting concludes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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