Redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the 3rd Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning seat that Kamala Harris carried by roughly ten points in 2024, prompting Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to forgo reelection there. Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated to the district and has raised over $1.8 million, far outpacing Republican candidates such as Christine Bish. Analyst ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching and a crowded Democratic field likely to advance at least one nominee to the November general election, trader consensus places the Democratic Party at 85 percent implied probability while assigning the Republican Party just 15 percent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,113 交易量
$25,113 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
85%
共和党
15%
$25,113 交易量
$25,113 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$13,178 交易量
85%
共和党
$11,935 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the 3rd Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning seat that Kamala Harris carried by roughly ten points in 2024, prompting Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to forgo reelection there. Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated to the district and has raised over $1.8 million, far outpacing Republican candidates such as Christine Bish. Analyst ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching and a crowded Democratic field likely to advance at least one nominee to the November general election, trader consensus places the Democratic Party at 85 percent implied probability while assigning the Republican Party just 15 percent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$25,113结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the 3rd Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning seat that Kamala Harris carried by roughly ten points in 2024, prompting Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to forgo reelection there. Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated to the district and has raised over $1.8 million, far outpacing Republican candidates such as Christine Bish. Analyst ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching and a crowded Democratic field likely to advance at least one nominee to the November general election, trader consensus places the Democratic Party at 85 percent implied probability while assigning the Republican Party just 15 percent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$25,113结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the 3rd Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning seat that Kamala Harris carried by roughly ten points in 2024, prompting Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to forgo reelection there. Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated to the district and has raised over $1.8 million, far outpacing Republican candidates such as Christine Bish. Analyst ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching and a crowded Democratic field likely to advance at least one nominee to the November general election, trader consensus places the Democratic Party at 85 percent implied probability while assigning the Republican Party just 15 percent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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