Trader consensus clusters on 34–35°C for Karachi’s June 15 high because short-range model guidance and Pakistan Meteorological Department outlooks align with typical pre-monsoon climatology, where daily maxima average 34–36°C under southwesterly flow and high humidity (70–80%). The Arabian Sea’s marine layer and diurnal sea-breeze circulation are the dominant moderating mechanisms, limiting peak temperatures near the coast while allowing modest inland warming. Minor forecast spreads arise from uncertainty in breeze timing and strength, low-level moisture convergence, and any late-day cloud cover that could suppress insolation. Stronger onshore winds or earlier cloud build-up would favor the 34°C bucket, whereas clearer skies or a temporary continental air surge could push readings to 36°C. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will resolve the tight probability split.