Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting agencies point to a daily maximum near 29°C on June 14, 2026, driven by southwesterly flow, high humidity, and seasonal warming trends that keep most ensemble runs clustered in the upper 20s. This consensus underpins the near-certain market-implied probability for 29°C, consistent with climatological June averages around 30–31°C but tempered by expected cloud cover and showers. Traders have aligned on this outcome because official guidance shows limited spread in projected highs and no strong signals for significant deviation. A sudden clearing of skies or delayed rainfall could push readings to 30–31°C, while heavier or earlier precipitation might cap the peak below 29°C, though current model agreement leaves little room for such shifts by day's end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6月14日香港气温最高?
29°C 100.0%
30°C <1%
23°C或以下 <1%
24°C <1%
$209,713 交易量
$209,713 交易量
23°C或以下
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
100%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C或更高
<1%
29°C 100.0%
30°C <1%
23°C或以下 <1%
24°C <1%
$209,713 交易量
$209,713 交易量
23°C或以下
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
100%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Jun 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting agencies point to a daily maximum near 29°C on June 14, 2026, driven by southwesterly flow, high humidity, and seasonal warming trends that keep most ensemble runs clustered in the upper 20s. This consensus underpins the near-certain market-implied probability for 29°C, consistent with climatological June averages around 30–31°C but tempered by expected cloud cover and showers. Traders have aligned on this outcome because official guidance shows limited spread in projected highs and no strong signals for significant deviation. A sudden clearing of skies or delayed rainfall could push readings to 30–31°C, while heavier or earlier precipitation might cap the peak below 29°C, though current model agreement leaves little room for such shifts by day's end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题