Recent numerical weather prediction guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a 27–28 °C peak on June 16 as the most probable outcome, driven by strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of a weak trough that allows greater insolation over coastal Shandong. Qingdao’s marine boundary layer over the Yellow Sea typically suppresses afternoon maxima by 2–4 °C relative to inland stations, keeping the distribution tightly clustered near the June climatological mean of 23–25 °C. Partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds in the latest runs support brief clearing that could reach the upper end of the 26–29 °C brackets, while any increase in low-level moisture or earlier sea-breeze onset would favor the 26–27 °C outcomes. The next high-resolution CMA update and 48-hour NWP consensus are the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these probabilities.