New York's 15th Congressional District, a Democratic stronghold in the South Bronx with a history of lopsided general election margins exceeding 40 points, drives trader consensus toward a 95.3% implied probability for the Democratic Party nominee on November 3. Incumbent Ritchie Torres faces a contested June 23 Democratic primary against former Assemblymember Michael Blake and others, fueled by criticism of his pro-Israel stance and centrist pivot, though Torres holds a substantial fundraising edge estimated at nearly $7 million. No prominent Republican primary challengers have emerged for the June 23 GOP contest, underscoring the seat's safe status per Cook Political ratings. Scenarios like a damaging primary scandal, high-profile GOP recruitment, or national midterm wave could challenge this outlook, though structural voter registration advantages make upsets rare.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,469 交易量
$23,469 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$23,469 交易量
$23,469 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$11,738 交易量
95%
共和党
$11,731 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 15th Congressional District, a Democratic stronghold in the South Bronx with a history of lopsided general election margins exceeding 40 points, drives trader consensus toward a 95.3% implied probability for the Democratic Party nominee on November 3. Incumbent Ritchie Torres faces a contested June 23 Democratic primary against former Assemblymember Michael Blake and others, fueled by criticism of his pro-Israel stance and centrist pivot, though Torres holds a substantial fundraising edge estimated at nearly $7 million. No prominent Republican primary challengers have emerged for the June 23 GOP contest, underscoring the seat's safe status per Cook Political ratings. Scenarios like a damaging primary scandal, high-profile GOP recruitment, or national midterm wave could challenge this outlook, though structural voter registration advantages make upsets rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$23,469结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 15th Congressional District, a Democratic stronghold in the South Bronx with a history of lopsided general election margins exceeding 40 points, drives trader consensus toward a 95.3% implied probability for the Democratic Party nominee on November 3. Incumbent Ritchie Torres faces a contested June 23 Democratic primary against former Assemblymember Michael Blake and others, fueled by criticism of his pro-Israel stance and centrist pivot, though Torres holds a substantial fundraising edge estimated at nearly $7 million. No prominent Republican primary challengers have emerged for the June 23 GOP contest, underscoring the seat's safe status per Cook Political ratings. Scenarios like a damaging primary scandal, high-profile GOP recruitment, or national midterm wave could challenge this outlook, though structural voter registration advantages make upsets rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,469结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York's 15th Congressional District, a Democratic stronghold in the South Bronx with a history of lopsided general election margins exceeding 40 points, drives trader consensus toward a 95.3% implied probability for the Democratic Party nominee on November 3. Incumbent Ritchie Torres faces a contested June 23 Democratic primary against former Assemblymember Michael Blake and others, fueled by criticism of his pro-Israel stance and centrist pivot, though Torres holds a substantial fundraising edge estimated at nearly $7 million. No prominent Republican primary challengers have emerged for the June 23 GOP contest, underscoring the seat's safe status per Cook Political ratings. Scenarios like a damaging primary scandal, high-profile GOP recruitment, or national midterm wave could challenge this outlook, though structural voter registration advantages make upsets rare.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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