The recent collapse of Romania’s broad pro-European coalition in May 2026, triggered by the PSD’s withdrawal and a no-confidence vote backed by AUR, has left parliament fragmented and intensified coalition bargaining under President Nicușor Dan. Traders price PSD+PNL+USR highest because it revives core elements of the prior majority without immediately requiring far-right inclusion or early elections that could boost AUR further. Competing scenarios such as USR+UDMR or narrower PSD-PNL variants gain traction from parties’ stated reluctance to renew grand-coalition deals or accept AUR participation, while fiscal pressures and minority-party leverage keep multiple combinations within reach. The tight spread among leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over which parties will ultimately compromise before parliament must act or fresh elections become unavoidable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于PSD + PNL + UDMR 21.1%
PSD 10%
PNL + USR 9.5%
Other 9.2%
$23,871 交易量
$23,871 交易量
2026-05-31
PSD + PNL + UDMR
25%
PSD
10%
PNL + USR
10%
Other
9%
PSD + AUR
12%
PSD + UDMR
6%
PSD + USR + UDMR
5%
PNL + USR + UDMR
5%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
3%
PNL
7%
UDMR
2%
PSD + PNL
2%
PSD + USR
2%
PNL + UDMR
2%
UDMR + AUR
2%
AUR
2%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
USR
1%
PNL + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
1%
USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + AUR
1%
USR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
15%
PSD + PNL + USR
36%
USR + UDMR
30%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 21.1%
PSD 10%
PNL + USR 9.5%
Other 9.2%
$23,871 交易量
$23,871 交易量
2026-05-31
PSD + PNL + UDMR
$1,580 交易量
25%
PSD
$329 交易量
10%
PNL + USR
$309 交易量
10%
Other
$3,747 交易量
9%
PSD + AUR
$255 交易量
12%
PSD + UDMR
$3,192 交易量
6%
PSD + USR + UDMR
$512 交易量
5%
PNL + USR + UDMR
$448 交易量
5%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
$469 交易量
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$429 交易量
4%
PSD + PNL + AUR
$125 交易量
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
$538 交易量
3%
PNL
$302 交易量
7%
UDMR
$2,094 交易量
2%
PSD + PNL
$175 交易量
2%
PSD + USR
$538 交易量
2%
PNL + UDMR
$377 交易量
2%
UDMR + AUR
$676 交易量
2%
AUR
$695 交易量
2%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
$508 交易量
1%
USR
$1,730 交易量
1%
PNL + AUR
$467 交易量
1%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
$408 交易量
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$381 交易量
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
$379 交易量
1%
USR + UDMR + AUR
$618 交易量
1%
PNL + USR + AUR
$361 交易量
1%
USR + AUR
$706 交易量
1%
PSD + USR + AUR
$360 交易量
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
$458 交易量
15%
PSD + PNL + USR
$182 交易量
36%
USR + UDMR
$524 交易量
30%
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.The recent collapse of Romania’s broad pro-European coalition in May 2026, triggered by the PSD’s withdrawal and a no-confidence vote backed by AUR, has left parliament fragmented and intensified coalition bargaining under President Nicușor Dan. Traders price PSD+PNL+USR highest because it revives core elements of the prior majority without immediately requiring far-right inclusion or early elections that could boost AUR further. Competing scenarios such as USR+UDMR or narrower PSD-PNL variants gain traction from parties’ stated reluctance to renew grand-coalition deals or accept AUR participation, while fiscal pressures and minority-party leverage keep multiple combinations within reach. The tight spread among leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over which parties will ultimately compromise before parliament must act or fresh elections become unavoidable.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
市场开放时间： May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
交易量
$23,871结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.The recent collapse of Romania’s broad pro-European coalition in May 2026, triggered by the PSD’s withdrawal and a no-confidence vote backed by AUR, has left parliament fragmented and intensified coalition bargaining under President Nicușor Dan. Traders price PSD+PNL+USR highest because it revives core elements of the prior majority without immediately requiring far-right inclusion or early elections that could boost AUR further. Competing scenarios such as USR+UDMR or narrower PSD-PNL variants gain traction from parties’ stated reluctance to renew grand-coalition deals or accept AUR participation, while fiscal pressures and minority-party leverage keep multiple combinations within reach. The tight spread among leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over which parties will ultimately compromise before parliament must act or fresh elections become unavoidable.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
交易量
$23,871结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The recent collapse of Romania’s broad pro-European coalition in May 2026, triggered by the PSD’s withdrawal and a no-confidence vote backed by AUR, has left parliament fragmented and intensified coalition bargaining under President Nicușor Dan. Traders price PSD+PNL+USR highest because it revives core elements of the prior majority without immediately requiring far-right inclusion or early elections that could boost AUR further. Competing scenarios such as USR+UDMR or narrower PSD-PNL variants gain traction from parties’ stated reluctance to renew grand-coalition deals or accept AUR participation, while fiscal pressures and minority-party leverage keep multiple combinations within reach. The tight spread among leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over which parties will ultimately compromise before parliament must act or fresh elections become unavoidable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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