Voters in Michigan will decide on November 3, 2026, whether to convene a constitutional convention under the automatic 16-year referendum required by the state constitution. Historical precedent shows strong rejection of similar proposals in 1978, 1994, and 2010, with “no” margins ranging from 67 to 77 percent. An organized opposition campaign backed by labor unions, business groups, and substantial funding has formed to highlight risks of high costs, reduced accountability, and potential for special-interest influence over the entire document. No comparable organized effort supports a “yes” outcome, and major party leaders have offered only limited commentary. These factors, combined with the ballot question’s procedural barriers and Michigan’s pattern of incremental amendments rather than wholesale revision, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing. Late shifts remain possible if polling trends change sharply or unexpected endorsements emerge before election day.