Voter sentiment for the November 2026 Michigan ballot question on convening a constitutional convention remains closely balanced, with traders assigning a 54.5 percent implied probability of rejection. Historical precedent favors the no side, as voters turned down similar automatic proposals in 2010, 1994, and earlier cycles by margins exceeding 65 percent. Recent developments reinforce this tilt through a broad opposition coalition that includes the Michigan Chamber of Commerce, Michigan Education Association, AFL-CIO, and Michigan Democratic Party, which cite risks that a convention could reopen recently enacted provisions on abortion rights, independent redistricting, and term limits. Limited endorsements from Republican legislative leaders provide some counterweight, yet the absence of a well-organized yes campaign and ongoing voter education efforts by groups like the Citizens Research Council have kept probabilities near even this far from election day. Scheduled fall campaigning and any shifts in endorsements could still alter the current equilibrium.