No known asteroids large enough to produce a 5-kiloton bolide impact remain on collision courses with Earth through the end of 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry risk assessments. Historical data show such atmospheric airbursts occur only 0.2–0.5 times per year on average, and the first five months of 2026 have recorded none above the threshold—the largest confirmed event released just 0.25 kt over Ohio in March. While a modest uptick in smaller fireballs has been noted by the American Meteor Society, ongoing infrared and infrasound networks plus refined orbital tracking of near-Earth objects continue to show no qualifying candidates. Traders therefore assign roughly 55–70 % probability to “No,” reflecting the low baseline frequency and absence of any recent detections that would shift the outlook before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known asteroids large enough to produce a 5-kiloton bolide impact remain on collision courses with Earth through the end of 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry risk assessments. Historical data show such atmospheric airbursts occur only 0.2–0.5 times per year on average, and the first five months of 2026 have recorded none above the threshold—the largest confirmed event released just 0.25 kt over Ohio in March. While a modest uptick in smaller fireballs has been noted by the American Meteor Society, ongoing infrared and infrasound networks plus refined orbital tracking of near-Earth objects continue to show no qualifying candidates. Traders therefore assign roughly 55–70 % probability to “No,” reflecting the low baseline frequency and absence of any recent detections that would shift the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$300,653End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known asteroids large enough to produce a 5-kiloton bolide impact remain on collision courses with Earth through the end of 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry risk assessments. Historical data show such atmospheric airbursts occur only 0.2–0.5 times per year on average, and the first five months of 2026 have recorded none above the threshold—the largest confirmed event released just 0.25 kt over Ohio in March. While a modest uptick in smaller fireballs has been noted by the American Meteor Society, ongoing infrared and infrasound networks plus refined orbital tracking of near-Earth objects continue to show no qualifying candidates. Traders therefore assign roughly 55–70 % probability to “No,” reflecting the low baseline frequency and absence of any recent detections that would shift the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$300,653End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known asteroids large enough to produce a 5-kiloton bolide impact remain on collision courses with Earth through the end of 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry risk assessments. Historical data show such atmospheric airbursts occur only 0.2–0.5 times per year on average, and the first five months of 2026 have recorded none above the threshold—the largest confirmed event released just 0.25 kt over Ohio in March. While a modest uptick in smaller fireballs has been noted by the American Meteor Society, ongoing infrared and infrasound networks plus refined orbital tracking of near-Earth objects continue to show no qualifying candidates. Traders therefore assign roughly 55–70 % probability to “No,” reflecting the low baseline frequency and absence of any recent detections that would shift the outlook before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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