Skip to main content
icon for AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

icon for AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

Jay Feely 71%

Joseph Chaplik 26.1%

Jason Duey 1.0%

Matt Gress <1%

Polymarket

$405,013 Vol.

Jay Feely 71%

Joseph Chaplik 26.1%

Jason Duey 1.0%

Matt Gress <1%

Polymarket

$405,013 Vol.

Jay Feely

$7,700 Vol.

71%

Joseph Chaplik

$9,325 Vol.

26%

Jason Duey

$3,092 Vol.

1%

Matt Gress

$48,804 Vol.

1%

Gina Swoboda

$4,611 Vol.

1%

John Trobough

$3,525 Vol.

<1%

Kaitlin Purrington

$9,638 Vol.

<1%

Derrick Gallego

$3,766 Vol.

<1%

Todd Graham

$7,929 Vol.

<1%

Kari Lake

$7,193 Vol.

<1%

Mark Brnovich

$61,436 Vol.

<1%

Paul Reevs

$222,573 Vol.

<1%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita

$4,589 Vol.

<1%

Brandon Sowers

$10,833 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent developments in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District Republican primary center on a sharp exchange between frontrunners Jay Feely and Joseph Chaplik. On May 7, Chaplik posted on X criticizing Feely for working with NGOs on Haitian migrants, prompting Feely to accuse him of targeting his legally immigrated family friends. The exchange, occurring weeks before the July 21 primary, appears to have reinforced Feely’s position in trader pricing. Feely, a former NFL kicker with strong name recognition and reported fundraising advantages, maintains the lead at 71 percent implied probability. Chaplik, a former state representative who resigned to run, holds 26 percent amid the controversy. Other entrants, including John Trobough and several lower-profile candidates, register under 1 percent as the field has consolidated around the top two contenders.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$405,013
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent developments in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District Republican primary center on a sharp exchange between frontrunners Jay Feely and Joseph Chaplik. On May 7, Chaplik posted on X criticizing Feely for working with NGOs on Haitian migrants, prompting Feely to accuse him of targeting his legally immigrated family friends. The exchange, occurring weeks before the July 21 primary, appears to have reinforced Feely’s position in trader pricing. Feely, a former NFL kicker with strong name recognition and reported fundraising advantages, maintains the lead at 71 percent implied probability. Chaplik, a former state representative who resigned to run, holds 26 percent amid the controversy. Other entrants, including John Trobough and several lower-profile candidates, register under 1 percent as the field has consolidated around the top two contenders.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$405,013
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?

Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?

95%
icon for Will Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01?

Will Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01?

74%
icon for Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?

Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?

42%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jay Feely" at 71%, followed by "Joseph Chaplik" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $405K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jay Feely" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Joseph Chaplik" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.