Lula holds a clear lead in recent Amazonas-specific polling for the October 2026 first round, with a Quaest survey from September 24 showing him at 38% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 32%, consistent with earlier state-level results. This positioning stems from Lula’s stronger support across the state’s interior municipalities, which offsets any narrower margins or leads for opponents in Manaus. National trends show a tighter overall race between the PT incumbent and the PL senator, but Amazonas has historically favored Workers’ Party candidates in the North region. Minor contenders such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register in low single digits or below in the same surveys, limiting their prospects for first place. Traders have priced these patterns into the market through the first-round vote count.