Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná polling for the October 4 first round, with recent surveys from Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Real Time Big Data showing him at 40–54% against Lula’s 26–34% and single-digit support for names such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. Paraná’s conservative electorate and elevated disapproval of the incumbent administration underpin this positioning, consistent with the state’s prior voting patterns favoring the Liberal Party ticket. Traders price Flavio at 97.3% for first place, reflecting the sustained double-digit margins and limited undecided voters who could still shift before election day. A sudden surge in turnout among Lula supporters or an unforeseen campaign development in the final week remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.