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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul

Flavio Bolsonaro 91%

Lula 10%

Clariana Barao <1%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket

$23,996 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro 91%

Lula 10%

Clariana Barao <1%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket

$23,996 Vol.

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$8,004 Vol.

91%

icon for Lula

Lula

$4,055 Vol.

10%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$1,171 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$1,491 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$1,437 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$493 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$858 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$640 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$1,786 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$641 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$1,376 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$821 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$1,223 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rio Grande do Sul first-round polling, reflecting sustained regional preference for the Liberal Party candidate among gaúcho voters. Local surveys from mid-2026 through September consistently place him ahead of or statistically tied with President Lula, often by margins that position him as the clear frontrunner in the state despite national dead heats. This edge stems from stronger right-wing consolidation in the South, lower rejection rates relative to the incumbent in some RS samples, and limited traction for alternatives such as Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. With the October 4 first round approaching, late shifts in turnout, candidate withdrawals, or major campaign events could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus views such scenarios as low-probability given the entrenched local dynamics.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$23,996
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rio Grande do Sul first-round polling, reflecting sustained regional preference for the Liberal Party candidate among gaúcho voters. Local surveys from mid-2026 through September consistently place him ahead of or statistically tied with President Lula, often by margins that position him as the clear frontrunner in the state despite national dead heats. This edge stems from stronger right-wing consolidation in the South, lower rejection rates relative to the incumbent in some RS samples, and limited traction for alternatives such as Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. With the October 4 first round approaching, late shifts in turnout, candidate withdrawals, or major campaign events could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus views such scenarios as low-probability given the entrenched local dynamics.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$23,996
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 91%, followed by "Lula" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul" has generated $24K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.