The race for first place in Tocantins remains closely contested heading into the October 4 first round, with national polarization between incumbent President Lula and Liberal Party candidate Flávio Bolsonaro shaping local voter preferences. A late-September Quaest poll in the state showed Lula at 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury and smaller names trailing further behind. Traders appear to weigh Flávio’s momentum from recent national polling gains and family political brand against Lula’s incumbency advantages and established PT organization in the region. Limited coalition-building by other right-leaning contenders and steady undecided or blank shares keep separation narrow, while final-week turnout efforts, security-focused messaging and any last-minute state endorsements could still alter the outcome before votes are cast.