Recent polling aggregates place Augusto Cury (Avante) and Renan Santos (Missão) in a tight contest for third place behind Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) trailing further back. Cury’s earlier surge stemmed from television appearances, social media growth, and positioning as a non-polarizing outsider focused on mental health and anti-establishment themes, though support has moderated. Santos, drawing from younger and activist voters through the Missão party’s liberal economic platform and critiques of institutional figures, has traded leads with Cury in successive surveys. Caiado’s more traditional conservative profile and gubernatorial record have not translated into comparable momentum. With the October 4 first round days away, final shifts in undecided voters or turnout among those rejecting the leading polarization could determine which candidate secures the position.