Iván Cepeda Castro’s consistent lead in recent Colombian polls, placing him at 37–44% while Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia trail in the low-to-mid 20s, has positioned the 10–15 point first-round margin as the leading outcome in trader consensus for the May 31 vote. The split conservative vote between the far-right de la Espriella and center-right Valencia has limited any single challenger’s ability to close the gap, keeping Cepeda well short of the 50% threshold needed for an outright win. Recent surveys from Invamer and AtlasIntel confirm this pattern, with volatility in prediction markets reflecting last-minute campaign dynamics and regional turnout shifts ahead of the first-round ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedColombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 32%
de la Espriella Win 16%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 14.0%
$15,001 Vol.
$15,001 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
32%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
14%
de la Espriella Win
16%
Valencia Win
<1%
Other
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 32%
de la Espriella Win 16%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 14.0%
$15,001 Vol.
$15,001 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$1,822 Vol.
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$1,213 Vol.
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$1,132 Vol.
38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$1,123 Vol.
32%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$1,259 Vol.
14%
de la Espriella Win
$4,115 Vol.
16%
Valencia Win
$2,270 Vol.
<1%
Other
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Iván Cepeda Castro’s consistent lead in recent Colombian polls, placing him at 37–44% while Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia trail in the low-to-mid 20s, has positioned the 10–15 point first-round margin as the leading outcome in trader consensus for the May 31 vote. The split conservative vote between the far-right de la Espriella and center-right Valencia has limited any single challenger’s ability to close the gap, keeping Cepeda well short of the 50% threshold needed for an outright win. Recent surveys from Invamer and AtlasIntel confirm this pattern, with volatility in prediction markets reflecting last-minute campaign dynamics and regional turnout shifts ahead of the first-round ballot.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$15,001End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Iván Cepeda Castro’s consistent lead in recent Colombian polls, placing him at 37–44% while Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia trail in the low-to-mid 20s, has positioned the 10–15 point first-round margin as the leading outcome in trader consensus for the May 31 vote. The split conservative vote between the far-right de la Espriella and center-right Valencia has limited any single challenger’s ability to close the gap, keeping Cepeda well short of the 50% threshold needed for an outright win. Recent surveys from Invamer and AtlasIntel confirm this pattern, with volatility in prediction markets reflecting last-minute campaign dynamics and regional turnout shifts ahead of the first-round ballot.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$15,001End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iván Cepeda Castro’s consistent lead in recent Colombian polls, placing him at 37–44% while Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia trail in the low-to-mid 20s, has positioned the 10–15 point first-round margin as the leading outcome in trader consensus for the May 31 vote. The split conservative vote between the far-right de la Espriella and center-right Valencia has limited any single challenger’s ability to close the gap, keeping Cepeda well short of the 50% threshold needed for an outright win. Recent surveys from Invamer and AtlasIntel confirm this pattern, with volatility in prediction markets reflecting last-minute campaign dynamics and regional turnout shifts ahead of the first-round ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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