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icon for Ebola emergency by June 30?

Ebola emergency by June 30?

icon for Ebola emergency by June 30?

Ebola emergency by June 30?

22% chance
Polymarket
NEW
22% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares Ebola a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A newly confirmed Ebola outbreak in Ituri province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, with 13 laboratory-confirmed cases and 65 deaths among 246 suspected infections as of May 15, 2026, has not yet triggered broad international alarm. Africa CDC and WHO have launched immediate surveillance, contact tracing, and cross-border coordination with Uganda and South Sudan, supported by Congo’s existing stockpile of Ervebo vaccine and approved therapeutics. Genomic sequencing is expected within days to identify the strain, while historical patterns show most recent DRC outbreaks contained rapidly without escalating to a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. With only six weeks until the June 30 resolution date and no evidence of sustained community transmission or export beyond the remote region, trader consensus assigns an implied 78.5 percent probability that no formal emergency declaration will occur.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares Ebola a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$404
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares Ebola a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares Ebola a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A newly confirmed Ebola outbreak in Ituri province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, with 13 laboratory-confirmed cases and 65 deaths among 246 suspected infections as of May 15, 2026, has not yet triggered broad international alarm. Africa CDC and WHO have launched immediate surveillance, contact tracing, and cross-border coordination with Uganda and South Sudan, supported by Congo’s existing stockpile of Ervebo vaccine and approved therapeutics. Genomic sequencing is expected within days to identify the strain, while historical patterns show most recent DRC outbreaks contained rapidly without escalating to a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. With only six weeks until the June 30 resolution date and no evidence of sustained community transmission or export beyond the remote region, trader consensus assigns an implied 78.5 percent probability that no formal emergency declaration will occur.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares Ebola a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$404
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares Ebola a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Ebola emergency by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 22% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 22¢, the market collectively assigns a 22% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Ebola emergency by June 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Ebola emergency by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Ebola emergency by June 30?" is 22% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 22% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Ebola emergency by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.