Celina Leão (PP), the current governor of Brazil’s Federal District who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 gubernatorial race. Recent Datafolha polling shows her at 37% (rising to 42% when ineligible candidate José Roberto Arruda is excluded), well ahead of Leandro Grass (PT) at 21–23%, with other contenders including Paula Belmonte and Ricardo Cappelli in single digits. Trader consensus reflects her incumbency, coalition support from parties including PP and União Brasil, and approval ratings near 53%. Arruda’s definitive ineligibility ruling by the TSE on September 24 removed a notable rival. A runoff against Grass would likely favor Leão based on simulated second-round results. Late campaign events or turnout shifts among undecided voters remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before October voting.