The upcoming December 6, 2026 legislative election in Guinea-Bissau remains tightly contested among leading coalitions and parties because the transitional military government has overseen a fragmented field since the 2025 coup annulled prior results. Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” holds the highest implied probability at 29.8 percent, followed closely by FREPASNA at 20.8 percent, with PT and others trailing, reflecting uncertainty over how the August 2026 constitutional referendum—approved by roughly 70 percent—will reshape alliances, seat allocation in the reduced 65-member assembly, and voter mobilization ahead of the vote. Fresh endorsements, coalition realignments, or official campaign restrictions could widen gaps, while low turnout or disputes over eligibility rules under the new charter might keep probabilities compressed until closer to election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGuinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner
Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner
FREPASNA 39.9%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” 30.9%
PT 10.8%
FLING 4.6%
$159,968 Vol.
$159,968 Vol.
Nov 22, 2025
FREPASNA
21%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”
31%
PT
11%
FLING
5%
PS
4%
MUNDO-GB
3%
FREPASNA 39.9%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” 30.9%
PT 10.8%
FLING 4.6%
$159,968 Vol.
$159,968 Vol.
Nov 22, 2025
FREPASNA
$26,786 Vol.
21%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”
$48,823 Vol.
31%
PT
$22,046 Vol.
11%
FLING
$13,132 Vol.
5%
PS
$26,296 Vol.
4%
MUNDO-GB
$22,884 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The upcoming December 6, 2026 legislative election in Guinea-Bissau remains tightly contested among leading coalitions and parties because the transitional military government has overseen a fragmented field since the 2025 coup annulled prior results. Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” holds the highest implied probability at 29.8 percent, followed closely by FREPASNA at 20.8 percent, with PT and others trailing, reflecting uncertainty over how the August 2026 constitutional referendum—approved by roughly 70 percent—will reshape alliances, seat allocation in the reduced 65-member assembly, and voter mobilization ahead of the vote. Fresh endorsements, coalition realignments, or official campaign restrictions could widen gaps, while low turnout or disputes over eligibility rules under the new charter might keep probabilities compressed until closer to election day.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Market Opened: Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ET
Volume
$159,968End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The upcoming December 6, 2026 legislative election in Guinea-Bissau remains tightly contested among leading coalitions and parties because the transitional military government has overseen a fragmented field since the 2025 coup annulled prior results. Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” holds the highest implied probability at 29.8 percent, followed closely by FREPASNA at 20.8 percent, with PT and others trailing, reflecting uncertainty over how the August 2026 constitutional referendum—approved by roughly 70 percent—will reshape alliances, seat allocation in the reduced 65-member assembly, and voter mobilization ahead of the vote. Fresh endorsements, coalition realignments, or official campaign restrictions could widen gaps, while low turnout or disputes over eligibility rules under the new charter might keep probabilities compressed until closer to election day.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$159,968End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The upcoming December 6, 2026 legislative election in Guinea-Bissau remains tightly contested among leading coalitions and parties because the transitional military government has overseen a fragmented field since the 2025 coup annulled prior results. Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” holds the highest implied probability at 29.8 percent, followed closely by FREPASNA at 20.8 percent, with PT and others trailing, reflecting uncertainty over how the August 2026 constitutional referendum—approved by roughly 70 percent—will reshape alliances, seat allocation in the reduced 65-member assembly, and voter mobilization ahead of the vote. Fresh endorsements, coalition realignments, or official campaign restrictions could widen gaps, while low turnout or disputes over eligibility rules under the new charter might keep probabilities compressed until closer to election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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