Persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow across Central Texas produced clear skies and strong daytime heating on August 12, 2026, driving Austin’s official high into the 100–101°F range per National Weather Service observations. This aligns with the market’s 100% implied probability for that bin and exceeds the month’s climatological average high of 97–99°F. Model consensus from prior days had centered on 100–102°F under continued dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, with limited variability in guidance reducing upside or downside risk. Scenarios that could have challenged the outcome, such as unexpected Gulf moisture triggering afternoon convection or a shift in the ridge axis, did not materialize, leaving the measured maximum firmly within the dominant interval.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 12?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 12?
100-101°F 100.0%
91°F or below <1%
92-93°F <1%
94-95°F <1%
$27,285 Vol.
$27,285 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
91°F or below
No
92-93°F
No
94-95°F
No
96-97°F
No
98-99°F
No
100-101°F
Yes
102-103°F
No
104-105°F
No
106-107°F
No
108-109°F
No
110°F or higher
No
100-101°F 100.0%
91°F or below <1%
92-93°F <1%
94-95°F <1%
$27,285 Vol.
$27,285 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
91°F or below
$610 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$2,739 Vol.
No
94-95°F
$2,870 Vol.
No
96-97°F
$1,286 Vol.
No
98-99°F
$4,084 Vol.
No
100-101°F
$7,159 Vol.
Yes
102-103°F
$3,182 Vol.
No
104-105°F
$2,101 Vol.
No
106-107°F
$1,694 Vol.
No
108-109°F
$1,001 Vol.
No
110°F or higher
$559 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow across Central Texas produced clear skies and strong daytime heating on August 12, 2026, driving Austin’s official high into the 100–101°F range per National Weather Service observations. This aligns with the market’s 100% implied probability for that bin and exceeds the month’s climatological average high of 97–99°F. Model consensus from prior days had centered on 100–102°F under continued dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, with limited variability in guidance reducing upside or downside risk. Scenarios that could have challenged the outcome, such as unexpected Gulf moisture triggering afternoon convection or a shift in the ridge axis, did not materialize, leaving the measured maximum firmly within the dominant interval.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$27,285End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow across Central Texas produced clear skies and strong daytime heating on August 12, 2026, driving Austin’s official high into the 100–101°F range per National Weather Service observations. This aligns with the market’s 100% implied probability for that bin and exceeds the month’s climatological average high of 97–99°F. Model consensus from prior days had centered on 100–102°F under continued dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, with limited variability in guidance reducing upside or downside risk. Scenarios that could have challenged the outcome, such as unexpected Gulf moisture triggering afternoon convection or a shift in the ridge axis, did not materialize, leaving the measured maximum firmly within the dominant interval.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,285End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow across Central Texas produced clear skies and strong daytime heating on August 12, 2026, driving Austin’s official high into the 100–101°F range per National Weather Service observations. This aligns with the market’s 100% implied probability for that bin and exceeds the month’s climatological average high of 97–99°F. Model consensus from prior days had centered on 100–102°F under continued dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, with limited variability in guidance reducing upside or downside risk. Scenarios that could have challenged the outcome, such as unexpected Gulf moisture triggering afternoon convection or a shift in the ridge axis, did not materialize, leaving the measured maximum firmly within the dominant interval.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions