Official forecasts from China’s National Meteorological Centre project a Beijing maximum near 30°C on August 13 under widespread thunderstorms that suppress solar heating and promote cooling through evaporation and cloud cover. Ensemble models show tight clustering around this value with minimal spread, consistent with late-summer climatology when monsoon influences and convective activity typically cap highs in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius. The near-certain market pricing on 30°C reflects this strong observational and model consensus backed by real capital. A realistic challenge would require unexpectedly suppressed convection allowing clearer skies and stronger insolation, or a rapid shift in steering patterns that reduces moisture and rainfall, both of which remain low-probability based on current guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 13?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 13?
30°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$99,276 Vol.
$99,276 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$99,276 Vol.
$99,276 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
22°C or below
$2,061 Vol.
No
23°C
$880 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,388 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,638 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,903 Vol.
No
27°C
$5,796 Vol.
No
28°C
$8,228 Vol.
No
29°C
$19,676 Vol.
No
30°C
$13,755 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$11,587 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$25,363 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from China’s National Meteorological Centre project a Beijing maximum near 30°C on August 13 under widespread thunderstorms that suppress solar heating and promote cooling through evaporation and cloud cover. Ensemble models show tight clustering around this value with minimal spread, consistent with late-summer climatology when monsoon influences and convective activity typically cap highs in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius. The near-certain market pricing on 30°C reflects this strong observational and model consensus backed by real capital. A realistic challenge would require unexpectedly suppressed convection allowing clearer skies and stronger insolation, or a rapid shift in steering patterns that reduces moisture and rainfall, both of which remain low-probability based on current guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$99,276End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from China’s National Meteorological Centre project a Beijing maximum near 30°C on August 13 under widespread thunderstorms that suppress solar heating and promote cooling through evaporation and cloud cover. Ensemble models show tight clustering around this value with minimal spread, consistent with late-summer climatology when monsoon influences and convective activity typically cap highs in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius. The near-certain market pricing on 30°C reflects this strong observational and model consensus backed by real capital. A realistic challenge would require unexpectedly suppressed convection allowing clearer skies and stronger insolation, or a rapid shift in steering patterns that reduces moisture and rainfall, both of which remain low-probability based on current guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$99,276End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official forecasts from China’s National Meteorological Centre project a Beijing maximum near 30°C on August 13 under widespread thunderstorms that suppress solar heating and promote cooling through evaporation and cloud cover. Ensemble models show tight clustering around this value with minimal spread, consistent with late-summer climatology when monsoon influences and convective activity typically cap highs in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius. The near-certain market pricing on 30°C reflects this strong observational and model consensus backed by real capital. A realistic challenge would require unexpectedly suppressed convection allowing clearer skies and stronger insolation, or a rapid shift in steering patterns that reduces moisture and rainfall, both of which remain low-probability based on current guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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