Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS models converge on a Guangzhou high near 29°C for May 18, with southerly flow and moderate humidity driving daytime heating across the Pearl River Delta. Scattered convective clouds and possible patchy rain may limit peak solar insolation, keeping the most likely outcome between 28°C and 30°C. Historical May climatology shows average daily maxima around 29°C, though day-to-day variability rises with pre-monsoon moisture patterns. Traders price these bins highest because model consensus favors modest warming without strong clear-sky conditions or incoming cold fronts. Updated runs and official observational data from Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on May 18?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 18?
29°C 36%
30°C 25%
28°C 22%
27°C 17%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
5%
27°C
17%
28°C
22%
29°C
36%
30°C
25%
31°C
4%
32°C or higher
1%
29°C 36%
30°C 25%
28°C 22%
27°C 17%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
$754 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$392 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,095 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,821 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$255 Vol.
5%
27°C
$285 Vol.
17%
28°C
$307 Vol.
22%
29°C
$530 Vol.
36%
30°C
$365 Vol.
25%
31°C
$308 Vol.
4%
32°C or higher
$816 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS models converge on a Guangzhou high near 29°C for May 18, with southerly flow and moderate humidity driving daytime heating across the Pearl River Delta. Scattered convective clouds and possible patchy rain may limit peak solar insolation, keeping the most likely outcome between 28°C and 30°C. Historical May climatology shows average daily maxima around 29°C, though day-to-day variability rises with pre-monsoon moisture patterns. Traders price these bins highest because model consensus favors modest warming without strong clear-sky conditions or incoming cold fronts. Updated runs and official observational data from Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$7,927End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS models converge on a Guangzhou high near 29°C for May 18, with southerly flow and moderate humidity driving daytime heating across the Pearl River Delta. Scattered convective clouds and possible patchy rain may limit peak solar insolation, keeping the most likely outcome between 28°C and 30°C. Historical May climatology shows average daily maxima around 29°C, though day-to-day variability rises with pre-monsoon moisture patterns. Traders price these bins highest because model consensus favors modest warming without strong clear-sky conditions or incoming cold fronts. Updated runs and official observational data from Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,927End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGRecent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS models converge on a Guangzhou high near 29°C for May 18, with southerly flow and moderate humidity driving daytime heating across the Pearl River Delta. Scattered convective clouds and possible patchy rain may limit peak solar insolation, keeping the most likely outcome between 28°C and 30°C. Historical May climatology shows average daily maxima around 29°C, though day-to-day variability rises with pre-monsoon moisture patterns. Traders price these bins highest because model consensus favors modest warming without strong clear-sky conditions or incoming cold fronts. Updated runs and official observational data from Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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