Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Guangzhou's May 17 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered evenly around 24–28°C due to a forecasted shift from recent hot days (30–34°C highs through May 14) to increased cloud cover and moderate showers from southerly monsoon flow. China Meteorological Administration guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensembles show daytime highs capped near 26–27°C amid 50–70% precipitation chances suppressing solar insolation, though brief sun breaks could push toward 28°C. Historical May averages near 29°C provide context, but current atmospheric moisture and weak fronts differentiate outcomes; watch CMA updates and May 16 observations for resolution-defining clarity on peak heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on May 17?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 17?
28°C 26%
27°C 22%
26°C 13%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
8%
26°C
13%
27°C
22%
28°C
26%
29°C
12%
30°C
9%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 26%
27°C 22%
26°C 13%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
22°C or below
$486 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$212 Vol.
1%
24°C
$162 Vol.
3%
25°C
$107 Vol.
8%
26°C
$29 Vol.
13%
27°C
$92 Vol.
22%
28°C
$66 Vol.
26%
29°C
$33 Vol.
12%
30°C
$30 Vol.
9%
31°C
$248 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$107 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Guangzhou's May 17 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered evenly around 24–28°C due to a forecasted shift from recent hot days (30–34°C highs through May 14) to increased cloud cover and moderate showers from southerly monsoon flow. China Meteorological Administration guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensembles show daytime highs capped near 26–27°C amid 50–70% precipitation chances suppressing solar insolation, though brief sun breaks could push toward 28°C. Historical May averages near 29°C provide context, but current atmospheric moisture and weak fronts differentiate outcomes; watch CMA updates and May 16 observations for resolution-defining clarity on peak heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$1,562End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Guangzhou's May 17 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered evenly around 24–28°C due to a forecasted shift from recent hot days (30–34°C highs through May 14) to increased cloud cover and moderate showers from southerly monsoon flow. China Meteorological Administration guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensembles show daytime highs capped near 26–27°C amid 50–70% precipitation chances suppressing solar insolation, though brief sun breaks could push toward 28°C. Historical May averages near 29°C provide context, but current atmospheric moisture and weak fronts differentiate outcomes; watch CMA updates and May 16 observations for resolution-defining clarity on peak heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,562End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Guangzhou's May 17 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered evenly around 24–28°C due to a forecasted shift from recent hot days (30–34°C highs through May 14) to increased cloud cover and moderate showers from southerly monsoon flow. China Meteorological Administration guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensembles show daytime highs capped near 26–27°C amid 50–70% precipitation chances suppressing solar insolation, though brief sun breaks could push toward 28°C. Historical May averages near 29°C provide context, but current atmospheric moisture and weak fronts differentiate outcomes; watch CMA updates and May 16 observations for resolution-defining clarity on peak heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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