Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including the ECMWF and GFS indicates Istanbul’s August 5 maximum will likely peak between 28–29 °C under mostly sunny conditions with moderate northerly winds and limited cloud cover. The narrow spread between the leading market-implied outcomes reflects uncertainty in local factors such as Bosphorus sea-breeze timing, urban heat-island intensity, and exact insolation duration, which can shift observed highs by 1 °C. Short-range guidance shows little day-to-day trend change, keeping trader focus on intra-day observational updates from official Turkish meteorological stations rather than broader seasonal anomalies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 5?
29°C 50%
28°C 38%
30°C 9%
27°C <1%
$29,289 Vol.
$29,289 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
38%
29°C
50%
30°C
9%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 50%
28°C 38%
30°C 9%
27°C <1%
$29,289 Vol.
$29,289 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
24°C or below
$443 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$447 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,234 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,475 Vol.
1%
28°C
$6,579 Vol.
38%
29°C
$3,835 Vol.
50%
30°C
$3,275 Vol.
9%
31°C
$3,212 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$2,698 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$2,310 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$2,781 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including the ECMWF and GFS indicates Istanbul’s August 5 maximum will likely peak between 28–29 °C under mostly sunny conditions with moderate northerly winds and limited cloud cover. The narrow spread between the leading market-implied outcomes reflects uncertainty in local factors such as Bosphorus sea-breeze timing, urban heat-island intensity, and exact insolation duration, which can shift observed highs by 1 °C. Short-range guidance shows little day-to-day trend change, keeping trader focus on intra-day observational updates from official Turkish meteorological stations rather than broader seasonal anomalies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$29,289End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including the ECMWF and GFS indicates Istanbul’s August 5 maximum will likely peak between 28–29 °C under mostly sunny conditions with moderate northerly winds and limited cloud cover. The narrow spread between the leading market-implied outcomes reflects uncertainty in local factors such as Bosphorus sea-breeze timing, urban heat-island intensity, and exact insolation duration, which can shift observed highs by 1 °C. Short-range guidance shows little day-to-day trend change, keeping trader focus on intra-day observational updates from official Turkish meteorological stations rather than broader seasonal anomalies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$29,289End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including the ECMWF and GFS indicates Istanbul’s August 5 maximum will likely peak between 28–29 °C under mostly sunny conditions with moderate northerly winds and limited cloud cover. The narrow spread between the leading market-implied outcomes reflects uncertainty in local factors such as Bosphorus sea-breeze timing, urban heat-island intensity, and exact insolation duration, which can shift observed highs by 1 °C. Short-range guidance shows little day-to-day trend change, keeping trader focus on intra-day observational updates from official Turkish meteorological stations rather than broader seasonal anomalies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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