Recent surface observations at King Abdulaziz International Airport, including a 39°C peak on May 15, combined with forecast model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System, have driven trader consensus toward a 99.7% implied probability for 37°C or higher in Jeddah on May 17. Jeddah’s subtropical desert climate produces May daily highs averaging 37–39°C under strong solar insolation and light winds, with the current atmospheric pattern showing no significant cooling influences such as enhanced onshore flow or cloud cover. While model runs indicate a realistic chance the maximum could reach 38–40°C, an unexpected increase in humidity or a shift in steering winds could cap temperatures near 36°C, though such deviations remain unlikely based on the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jeddah on May 17?
37°C or higher 99.7%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$50,194 Vol.
$50,194 Vol.
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
100%
37°C or higher 99.7%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$50,194 Vol.
$50,194 Vol.
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
100%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJNThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJNRecent surface observations at King Abdulaziz International Airport, including a 39°C peak on May 15, combined with forecast model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System, have driven trader consensus toward a 99.7% implied probability for 37°C or higher in Jeddah on May 17. Jeddah’s subtropical desert climate produces May daily highs averaging 37–39°C under strong solar insolation and light winds, with the current atmospheric pattern showing no significant cooling influences such as enhanced onshore flow or cloud cover. While model runs indicate a realistic chance the maximum could reach 38–40°C, an unexpected increase in humidity or a shift in steering winds could cap temperatures near 36°C, though such deviations remain unlikely based on the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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