Strong seasonal patterns and current forecasts drive the market's near-certain pricing of 26°C or higher for Jinan's August 15 high. Mid-August climatology in the North China Plain places Jinan under subtropical high influence, with typical daily maxima of 30–35°C fueled by intense solar heating, high humidity, and urban effects; regional models and agency outlooks consistently project 28–34°C for the date, well above the threshold. Historical August averages near 31–32°C further anchor trader consensus. Only an unexpected strong cold front or prolonged heavy rainfall could realistically pull the high below 26°C, though no such signals appear in the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jinan on August 15?
Highest temperature in Jinan on August 15?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
100%
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
16°C or below
$232 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$232 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$232 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$232 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$222 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$152 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$152 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$152 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$152 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$151 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$849 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong seasonal patterns and current forecasts drive the market's near-certain pricing of 26°C or higher for Jinan's August 15 high. Mid-August climatology in the North China Plain places Jinan under subtropical high influence, with typical daily maxima of 30–35°C fueled by intense solar heating, high humidity, and urban effects; regional models and agency outlooks consistently project 28–34°C for the date, well above the threshold. Historical August averages near 31–32°C further anchor trader consensus. Only an unexpected strong cold front or prolonged heavy rainfall could realistically pull the high below 26°C, though no such signals appear in the latest guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$2,756End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong seasonal patterns and current forecasts drive the market's near-certain pricing of 26°C or higher for Jinan's August 15 high. Mid-August climatology in the North China Plain places Jinan under subtropical high influence, with typical daily maxima of 30–35°C fueled by intense solar heating, high humidity, and urban effects; regional models and agency outlooks consistently project 28–34°C for the date, well above the threshold. Historical August averages near 31–32°C further anchor trader consensus. Only an unexpected strong cold front or prolonged heavy rainfall could realistically pull the high below 26°C, though no such signals appear in the latest guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,756End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong seasonal patterns and current forecasts drive the market's near-certain pricing of 26°C or higher for Jinan's August 15 high. Mid-August climatology in the North China Plain places Jinan under subtropical high influence, with typical daily maxima of 30–35°C fueled by intense solar heating, high humidity, and urban effects; regional models and agency outlooks consistently project 28–34°C for the date, well above the threshold. Historical August averages near 31–32°C further anchor trader consensus. Only an unexpected strong cold front or prolonged heavy rainfall could realistically pull the high below 26°C, though no such signals appear in the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions