Recent monsoon activity and associated cloud cover plus rainfall stand out as the main drivers behind the closely bunched market odds favoring 29–32 °C for Lucknow’s August 18 maximum. Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and models highlight thundery showers and overcast skies expected to limit daytime solar heating, keeping highs near or slightly below the seasonal average of about 32 °C. Persistent moisture and possible localized heavy rain further suppress peak temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation. Traders appear to weigh these near-term convective patterns against any brief clearing that could allow brief warming to 32–33 °C. Updated model runs and IMD briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on August 18?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 18?
31°C 29%
30°C 26%
29°C 19%
32°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
8%
29°C
19%
30°C
26%
31°C
29%
32°C
17%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
1%
31°C 29%
30°C 26%
29°C 19%
32°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
$304 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$604 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$116 Vol.
1%
27°C
$77 Vol.
2%
28°C
$38 Vol.
8%
29°C
$130 Vol.
19%
30°C
$53 Vol.
26%
31°C
$17 Vol.
29%
32°C
$258 Vol.
17%
33°C
$86 Vol.
6%
34°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon activity and associated cloud cover plus rainfall stand out as the main drivers behind the closely bunched market odds favoring 29–32 °C for Lucknow’s August 18 maximum. Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and models highlight thundery showers and overcast skies expected to limit daytime solar heating, keeping highs near or slightly below the seasonal average of about 32 °C. Persistent moisture and possible localized heavy rain further suppress peak temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation. Traders appear to weigh these near-term convective patterns against any brief clearing that could allow brief warming to 32–33 °C. Updated model runs and IMD briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,691End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon activity and associated cloud cover plus rainfall stand out as the main drivers behind the closely bunched market odds favoring 29–32 °C for Lucknow’s August 18 maximum. Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and models highlight thundery showers and overcast skies expected to limit daytime solar heating, keeping highs near or slightly below the seasonal average of about 32 °C. Persistent moisture and possible localized heavy rain further suppress peak temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation. Traders appear to weigh these near-term convective patterns against any brief clearing that could allow brief warming to 32–33 °C. Updated model runs and IMD briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,691End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monsoon activity and associated cloud cover plus rainfall stand out as the main drivers behind the closely bunched market odds favoring 29–32 °C for Lucknow’s August 18 maximum. Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and models highlight thundery showers and overcast skies expected to limit daytime solar heating, keeping highs near or slightly below the seasonal average of about 32 °C. Persistent moisture and possible localized heavy rain further suppress peak temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation. Traders appear to weigh these near-term convective patterns against any brief clearing that could allow brief warming to 32–33 °C. Updated model runs and IMD briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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