Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 39°C high in Madrid on August 14 reflects converging official observations from AEMET stations and model consensus under a persistent subtropical ridge with warm advection from North Africa. Daytime solar heating combined with low humidity and light winds has driven peak readings to this level by afternoon, consistent with mid-August climatology where central Spain routinely sees maxima near 37–39°C. Minor model spreads in ensemble guidance have narrowed as real-time data confirm the threshold without exceeding it. An unexpected late-day cooling front or station-specific measurement adjustment could still alter the final official value, though such shifts appear improbable given the data convergence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 14?
39°C 100.0%
35°C or below <1%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
$92,610 Vol.
$92,610 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
Yes
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C or higher
No
39°C 100.0%
35°C or below <1%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
$92,610 Vol.
$92,610 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
$7,539 Vol.
No
36°C
$19,125 Vol.
No
37°C
$15,627 Vol.
No
38°C
$15,883 Vol.
No
39°C
$17,405 Vol.
Yes
40°C
$12,153 Vol.
No
41°C
$3,350 Vol.
No
42°C
$718 Vol.
No
43°C
$276 Vol.
No
44°C
$270 Vol.
No
45°C or higher
$263 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 39°C high in Madrid on August 14 reflects converging official observations from AEMET stations and model consensus under a persistent subtropical ridge with warm advection from North Africa. Daytime solar heating combined with low humidity and light winds has driven peak readings to this level by afternoon, consistent with mid-August climatology where central Spain routinely sees maxima near 37–39°C. Minor model spreads in ensemble guidance have narrowed as real-time data confirm the threshold without exceeding it. An unexpected late-day cooling front or station-specific measurement adjustment could still alter the final official value, though such shifts appear improbable given the data convergence.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$92,610End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 39°C high in Madrid on August 14 reflects converging official observations from AEMET stations and model consensus under a persistent subtropical ridge with warm advection from North Africa. Daytime solar heating combined with low humidity and light winds has driven peak readings to this level by afternoon, consistent with mid-August climatology where central Spain routinely sees maxima near 37–39°C. Minor model spreads in ensemble guidance have narrowed as real-time data confirm the threshold without exceeding it. An unexpected late-day cooling front or station-specific measurement adjustment could still alter the final official value, though such shifts appear improbable given the data convergence.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$92,610End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 39°C high in Madrid on August 14 reflects converging official observations from AEMET stations and model consensus under a persistent subtropical ridge with warm advection from North Africa. Daytime solar heating combined with low humidity and light winds has driven peak readings to this level by afternoon, consistent with mid-August climatology where central Spain routinely sees maxima near 37–39°C. Minor model spreads in ensemble guidance have narrowed as real-time data confirm the threshold without exceeding it. An unexpected late-day cooling front or station-specific measurement adjustment could still alter the final official value, though such shifts appear improbable given the data convergence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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