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Highest temperature in Miami on May 18?

icon for Highest temperature in Miami on May 18?

Highest temperature in Miami on May 18?

May 17

May 18

May 19

May 17

May 18

May 19

86-87°F 45%

88-89°F 30%

84-85°F 15%

90-91°F 6%

Polymarket
NEW

$16,996 Vol.

86-87°F 45%

88-89°F 30%

84-85°F 15%

90-91°F 6%

Polymarket
NEW

$16,996 Vol.

77°F or below

$786 Vol.

<1%

78-79°F

$955 Vol.

<1%

80-81°F

$661 Vol.

<1%

82-83°F

$1,964 Vol.

3%

84-85°F

$1,965 Vol.

15%

86-87°F

$2,087 Vol.

45%

88-89°F

$2,716 Vol.

30%

90-91°F

$2,188 Vol.

6%

92-93°F

$1,437 Vol.

1%

94-95°F

$1,147 Vol.

1%

96°F or higher

$1,112 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus position a daytime high of 86–87°F as the most probable outcome for Miami on May 18, supported by early-season subtropical ridging and light southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary. These conditions favor modest warming without strong advection or convective cooling, aligning with historical May averages near 85°F at Miami International Airport. Traders have priced in a modest chance of 88–89°F if ridging strengthens slightly, while lower bins reflect limited downside risk from any overnight marine influence. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final guidance ahead of resolution, with typical forecast uncertainty of ±2°F in subtropical spring regimes.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,996
End Date
May 18, 2026
Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus position a daytime high of 86–87°F as the most probable outcome for Miami on May 18, supported by early-season subtropical ridging and light southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary. These conditions favor modest warming without strong advection or convective cooling, aligning with historical May averages near 85°F at Miami International Airport. Traders have priced in a modest chance of 88–89°F if ridging strengthens slightly, while lower bins reflect limited downside risk from any overnight marine influence. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final guidance ahead of resolution, with typical forecast uncertainty of ±2°F in subtropical spring regimes.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,996
End Date
May 18, 2026
Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Miami on May 18?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "86-87°F" at 45%, followed by "88-89°F" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Miami on May 18?" has generated $17K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Miami on May 18?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Miami on May 18?" is "86-87°F" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "88-89°F" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Miami on May 18?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.