Recent Météo-France and ensemble model guidance shows Paris reaching a daily maximum of 31°C on August 15 under partly cloudy conditions with limited afternoon convection, following a brief cool-down after midweek heat. Numerical weather prediction runs maintain strong consensus around this value, consistent with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer conditions. The 99.5% market-implied probability on 31°C reflects traders’ assessment of low forecast uncertainty given the proximity to resolution and minimal model spread. A modest shift in steering flow or localized thunderstorm development could still produce a 30°C or 32°C outcome, though current observations make either outcome unlikely before the day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 15?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?
31°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$215,019 Vol.
$215,019 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$215,019 Vol.
$215,019 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$61,058 Vol.
No
31°C
$39,075 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$34,856 Vol.
No
33°C
$26,289 Vol.
No
34°C
$21,756 Vol.
No
35°C
$16,593 Vol.
No
36°C
$8,878 Vol.
No
37°C
$3,903 Vol.
No
38°C
$990 Vol.
No
39°C
$1,141 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$479 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ensemble model guidance shows Paris reaching a daily maximum of 31°C on August 15 under partly cloudy conditions with limited afternoon convection, following a brief cool-down after midweek heat. Numerical weather prediction runs maintain strong consensus around this value, consistent with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer conditions. The 99.5% market-implied probability on 31°C reflects traders’ assessment of low forecast uncertainty given the proximity to resolution and minimal model spread. A modest shift in steering flow or localized thunderstorm development could still produce a 30°C or 32°C outcome, though current observations make either outcome unlikely before the day ends.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$215,019End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ensemble model guidance shows Paris reaching a daily maximum of 31°C on August 15 under partly cloudy conditions with limited afternoon convection, following a brief cool-down after midweek heat. Numerical weather prediction runs maintain strong consensus around this value, consistent with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer conditions. The 99.5% market-implied probability on 31°C reflects traders’ assessment of low forecast uncertainty given the proximity to resolution and minimal model spread. A modest shift in steering flow or localized thunderstorm development could still produce a 30°C or 32°C outcome, though current observations make either outcome unlikely before the day ends.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$215,019End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent Météo-France and ensemble model guidance shows Paris reaching a daily maximum of 31°C on August 15 under partly cloudy conditions with limited afternoon convection, following a brief cool-down after midweek heat. Numerical weather prediction runs maintain strong consensus around this value, consistent with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer conditions. The 99.5% market-implied probability on 31°C reflects traders’ assessment of low forecast uncertainty given the proximity to resolution and minimal model spread. A modest shift in steering flow or localized thunderstorm development could still produce a 30°C or 32°C outcome, though current observations make either outcome unlikely before the day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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