Current forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and supporting regional models place Taipei’s daily maximum temperature at 31°C on May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure regime. Light easterly flow, minimal cloud cover, and typical pre-Meiyu early-season conditions have produced this consistent projection across official guidance, supporting the market’s near-100% implied probability for the 31°C outcome. Historical May climatology for northern Taiwan shows average highs near 28–30°C, so today’s setup aligns with expected warming before the seasonal monsoon front arrives. An unexpected surge in afternoon convection or a subtle shift in steering winds could still nudge the peak to 30°C or 32°C, though current model consensus and observational trends indicate low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on May 17?
Highest temperature in Taipei on May 17?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$111,613 Vol.
$111,613 Vol.
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$111,613 Vol.
$111,613 Vol.
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
$1,818 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,853 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,227 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$3,535 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$3,351 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$5,735 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$4,850 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$60,918 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$8,869 Vol.
100%
32°C
$8,046 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$11,416 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and supporting regional models place Taipei’s daily maximum temperature at 31°C on May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure regime. Light easterly flow, minimal cloud cover, and typical pre-Meiyu early-season conditions have produced this consistent projection across official guidance, supporting the market’s near-100% implied probability for the 31°C outcome. Historical May climatology for northern Taiwan shows average highs near 28–30°C, so today’s setup aligns with expected warming before the seasonal monsoon front arrives. An unexpected surge in afternoon convection or a subtle shift in steering winds could still nudge the peak to 30°C or 32°C, though current model consensus and observational trends indicate low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$111,613End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and supporting regional models place Taipei’s daily maximum temperature at 31°C on May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure regime. Light easterly flow, minimal cloud cover, and typical pre-Meiyu early-season conditions have produced this consistent projection across official guidance, supporting the market’s near-100% implied probability for the 31°C outcome. Historical May climatology for northern Taiwan shows average highs near 28–30°C, so today’s setup aligns with expected warming before the seasonal monsoon front arrives. An unexpected surge in afternoon convection or a subtle shift in steering winds could still nudge the peak to 30°C or 32°C, though current model consensus and observational trends indicate low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$111,613End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSCurrent forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and supporting regional models place Taipei’s daily maximum temperature at 31°C on May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure regime. Light easterly flow, minimal cloud cover, and typical pre-Meiyu early-season conditions have produced this consistent projection across official guidance, supporting the market’s near-100% implied probability for the 31°C outcome. Historical May climatology for northern Taiwan shows average highs near 28–30°C, so today’s setup aligns with expected warming before the seasonal monsoon front arrives. An unexpected surge in afternoon convection or a subtle shift in steering winds could still nudge the peak to 30°C or 32°C, though current model consensus and observational trends indicate low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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