Recent forecast models from Environment Canada and NOAA indicate a southerly flow advecting warmer air into southern Ontario, supporting a daytime maximum in Toronto on May 17 likely centered in the mid-20s Celsius. This setup, above the long-term mid-May climatological average of roughly 18–20 °C, explains why the 25 °C outcome currently leads market-implied odds at 28.5 percent. Small differences among the top bins—25 °C, 26 °C, and 27 °C or higher—stem from modest uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any weak frontal timing that could trim or enhance peak temperatures by 1–2 °C. Latest model runs show limited convective potential, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around these values.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on May 17?
Highest temperature in Toronto on May 17?
25°C 31%
26°C 26.1%
27°C or higher 23.6%
24°C 16%
$34,977 Vol.
$34,977 Vol.
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
16%
25°C
31%
26°C
26%
27°C or higher
24%
25°C 31%
26°C 26.1%
27°C or higher 23.6%
24°C 16%
$34,977 Vol.
$34,977 Vol.
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
$6,062 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$2,768 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$3,059 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,972 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,563 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,047 Vol.
2%
23°C
$2,816 Vol.
4%
24°C
$2,486 Vol.
16%
25°C
$2,394 Vol.
31%
26°C
$2,750 Vol.
26%
27°C or higher
$5,101 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from Environment Canada and NOAA indicate a southerly flow advecting warmer air into southern Ontario, supporting a daytime maximum in Toronto on May 17 likely centered in the mid-20s Celsius. This setup, above the long-term mid-May climatological average of roughly 18–20 °C, explains why the 25 °C outcome currently leads market-implied odds at 28.5 percent. Small differences among the top bins—25 °C, 26 °C, and 27 °C or higher—stem from modest uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any weak frontal timing that could trim or enhance peak temperatures by 1–2 °C. Latest model runs show limited convective potential, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around these values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$34,977End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from Environment Canada and NOAA indicate a southerly flow advecting warmer air into southern Ontario, supporting a daytime maximum in Toronto on May 17 likely centered in the mid-20s Celsius. This setup, above the long-term mid-May climatological average of roughly 18–20 °C, explains why the 25 °C outcome currently leads market-implied odds at 28.5 percent. Small differences among the top bins—25 °C, 26 °C, and 27 °C or higher—stem from modest uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any weak frontal timing that could trim or enhance peak temperatures by 1–2 °C. Latest model runs show limited convective potential, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around these values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$34,977End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZRecent forecast models from Environment Canada and NOAA indicate a southerly flow advecting warmer air into southern Ontario, supporting a daytime maximum in Toronto on May 17 likely centered in the mid-20s Celsius. This setup, above the long-term mid-May climatological average of roughly 18–20 °C, explains why the 25 °C outcome currently leads market-implied odds at 28.5 percent. Small differences among the top bins—25 °C, 26 °C, and 27 °C or higher—stem from modest uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any weak frontal timing that could trim or enhance peak temperatures by 1–2 °C. Latest model runs show limited convective potential, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around these values.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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