Traders have converged on a 13°C maximum for Wellington on August 15 due to MetService forecasts and observational data showing a daytime high near the seasonal average of 12–13°C. Strong southerly winds are advecting cooler polar maritime air masses across the region, combined with persistent low cloud cover that limits solar heating and surface warming. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology for the area, where average highs hover around 12°C amid frequent southerly outbreaks. The market-implied 100% probability on 13°C reflects this consensus from official guidance and real-time model runs. A shift toward lighter winds or partial clearing could allow modest warming above the threshold, while stronger advection or unexpected frontal activity might push the reading lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 15?
13°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$83,090 Vol.
$83,090 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$83,090 Vol.
$83,090 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
9°C or below
$1,154 Vol.
No
10°C
$285 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,208 Vol.
No
12°C
$12,663 Vol.
No
13°C
$19,332 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$17,228 Vol.
No
15°C
$11,816 Vol.
No
16°C
$12,896 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,527 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,564 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$417 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on a 13°C maximum for Wellington on August 15 due to MetService forecasts and observational data showing a daytime high near the seasonal average of 12–13°C. Strong southerly winds are advecting cooler polar maritime air masses across the region, combined with persistent low cloud cover that limits solar heating and surface warming. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology for the area, where average highs hover around 12°C amid frequent southerly outbreaks. The market-implied 100% probability on 13°C reflects this consensus from official guidance and real-time model runs. A shift toward lighter winds or partial clearing could allow modest warming above the threshold, while stronger advection or unexpected frontal activity might push the reading lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$83,090End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on a 13°C maximum for Wellington on August 15 due to MetService forecasts and observational data showing a daytime high near the seasonal average of 12–13°C. Strong southerly winds are advecting cooler polar maritime air masses across the region, combined with persistent low cloud cover that limits solar heating and surface warming. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology for the area, where average highs hover around 12°C amid frequent southerly outbreaks. The market-implied 100% probability on 13°C reflects this consensus from official guidance and real-time model runs. A shift toward lighter winds or partial clearing could allow modest warming above the threshold, while stronger advection or unexpected frontal activity might push the reading lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$83,090End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Traders have converged on a 13°C maximum for Wellington on August 15 due to MetService forecasts and observational data showing a daytime high near the seasonal average of 12–13°C. Strong southerly winds are advecting cooler polar maritime air masses across the region, combined with persistent low cloud cover that limits solar heating and surface warming. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology for the area, where average highs hover around 12°C amid frequent southerly outbreaks. The market-implied 100% probability on 13°C reflects this consensus from official guidance and real-time model runs. A shift toward lighter winds or partial clearing could allow modest warming above the threshold, while stronger advection or unexpected frontal activity might push the reading lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions