Recent departures of several Cabinet-level officials in 2026, including firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, have established a baseline of elevated turnover compared with the administration’s first year. These exits stemmed from performance concerns, congressional testimony issues, personal circumstances, and internal investigations. With roughly three months left in the year and midterms approaching, trader consensus clusters tightly around five or six total departures, reflecting uncertainty over whether additional Senate-confirmed roles will see voluntary exits, policy-driven reshuffles, or further accountability actions before December 31. Historical patterns of second-term fatigue and the pace of recent changes keep probabilities for four or seven-plus outcomes competitive but secondary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
5 38.0%
1 28%
4 21.5%
2 20.5%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
0
3%
1
21%
2
20%
3
13%
4
22%
5
38%
6
33%
7+
15%
5 38.0%
1 28%
4 21.5%
2 20.5%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
0
$5,052 Vol.
3%
1
$610 Vol.
21%
2
$425 Vol.
20%
3
$261 Vol.
13%
4
$321 Vol.
22%
5
$358 Vol.
38%
6
$476 Vol.
33%
7+
$2,058 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent departures of several Cabinet-level officials in 2026, including firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, have established a baseline of elevated turnover compared with the administration’s first year. These exits stemmed from performance concerns, congressional testimony issues, personal circumstances, and internal investigations. With roughly three months left in the year and midterms approaching, trader consensus clusters tightly around five or six total departures, reflecting uncertainty over whether additional Senate-confirmed roles will see voluntary exits, policy-driven reshuffles, or further accountability actions before December 31. Historical patterns of second-term fatigue and the pace of recent changes keep probabilities for four or seven-plus outcomes competitive but secondary.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Volume
$9,561End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent departures of several Cabinet-level officials in 2026, including firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, have established a baseline of elevated turnover compared with the administration’s first year. These exits stemmed from performance concerns, congressional testimony issues, personal circumstances, and internal investigations. With roughly three months left in the year and midterms approaching, trader consensus clusters tightly around five or six total departures, reflecting uncertainty over whether additional Senate-confirmed roles will see voluntary exits, policy-driven reshuffles, or further accountability actions before December 31. Historical patterns of second-term fatigue and the pace of recent changes keep probabilities for four or seven-plus outcomes competitive but secondary.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Volume
$9,561End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent departures of several Cabinet-level officials in 2026, including firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, have established a baseline of elevated turnover compared with the administration’s first year. These exits stemmed from performance concerns, congressional testimony issues, personal circumstances, and internal investigations. With roughly three months left in the year and midterms approaching, trader consensus clusters tightly around five or six total departures, reflecting uncertainty over whether additional Senate-confirmed roles will see voluntary exits, policy-driven reshuffles, or further accountability actions before December 31. Historical patterns of second-term fatigue and the pace of recent changes keep probabilities for four or seven-plus outcomes competitive but secondary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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