The closely matched market-implied odds between 7 and greater than 8 landfalls reflect an unusually active early 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season, with four confirmed Chinese landfalls already recorded (Maysak in early July, Bavi mid-July, Noul late July, and Dolphin on August 9) amid the most prolific named-storm formation through mid-August since 1971. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk anticipate 24–28 total named storms and 7–9 landfalls overall, exceeding the long-term average of roughly 7, driven by favorable sea-surface temperatures, steering patterns, and reduced vertical wind shear. Remaining uncertainty centers on late-August through October genesis rates, rapid intensification potential, and tracks that determine whether additional systems reach the Chinese coast at tropical-storm strength or higher before dissipating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
7 23%
6 22%
5 21%
8 11%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
4%
5
21%
6
17%
7
31%
8
11%
Greater than 8
27%
7 23%
6 22%
5 21%
8 11%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$332 Vol.
4%
5
$1,768 Vol.
21%
6
$572 Vol.
17%
7
$306 Vol.
31%
8
$142 Vol.
11%
Greater than 8
$276 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).The closely matched market-implied odds between 7 and greater than 8 landfalls reflect an unusually active early 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season, with four confirmed Chinese landfalls already recorded (Maysak in early July, Bavi mid-July, Noul late July, and Dolphin on August 9) amid the most prolific named-storm formation through mid-August since 1971. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk anticipate 24–28 total named storms and 7–9 landfalls overall, exceeding the long-term average of roughly 7, driven by favorable sea-surface temperatures, steering patterns, and reduced vertical wind shear. Remaining uncertainty centers on late-August through October genesis rates, rapid intensification potential, and tracks that determine whether additional systems reach the Chinese coast at tropical-storm strength or higher before dissipating.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$3,397End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).The closely matched market-implied odds between 7 and greater than 8 landfalls reflect an unusually active early 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season, with four confirmed Chinese landfalls already recorded (Maysak in early July, Bavi mid-July, Noul late July, and Dolphin on August 9) amid the most prolific named-storm formation through mid-August since 1971. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk anticipate 24–28 total named storms and 7–9 landfalls overall, exceeding the long-term average of roughly 7, driven by favorable sea-surface temperatures, steering patterns, and reduced vertical wind shear. Remaining uncertainty centers on late-August through October genesis rates, rapid intensification potential, and tracks that determine whether additional systems reach the Chinese coast at tropical-storm strength or higher before dissipating.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$3,397End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds between 7 and greater than 8 landfalls reflect an unusually active early 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season, with four confirmed Chinese landfalls already recorded (Maysak in early July, Bavi mid-July, Noul late July, and Dolphin on August 9) amid the most prolific named-storm formation through mid-August since 1971. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk anticipate 24–28 total named storms and 7–9 landfalls overall, exceeding the long-term average of roughly 7, driven by favorable sea-surface temperatures, steering patterns, and reduced vertical wind shear. Remaining uncertainty centers on late-August through October genesis rates, rapid intensification potential, and tracks that determine whether additional systems reach the Chinese coast at tropical-storm strength or higher before dissipating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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