Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood secured the party nomination for Illinois’s 16th congressional district in the March 17 primary with near-unanimous support, while Democrat Paul Nolley advanced unopposed on the other side. The district’s rural northern Illinois footprint and established Republican voting patterns create a durable structural advantage for the incumbent, whose family has held the seat for decades. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, consistent with the seat’s partisan lean and LaHood’s low-profile reelection record. With the general election still six months away and no major Democratic challenger emerging, trader consensus reflects these entrenched factors rather than any recent campaign shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
$12,709 Vol.
$12,709 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
10%
$12,709 Vol.
$12,709 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$3,841 Vol.
88%
Democratic Party
$8,868 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood secured the party nomination for Illinois’s 16th congressional district in the March 17 primary with near-unanimous support, while Democrat Paul Nolley advanced unopposed on the other side. The district’s rural northern Illinois footprint and established Republican voting patterns create a durable structural advantage for the incumbent, whose family has held the seat for decades. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, consistent with the seat’s partisan lean and LaHood’s low-profile reelection record. With the general election still six months away and no major Democratic challenger emerging, trader consensus reflects these entrenched factors rather than any recent campaign shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$12,709End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood secured the party nomination for Illinois’s 16th congressional district in the March 17 primary with near-unanimous support, while Democrat Paul Nolley advanced unopposed on the other side. The district’s rural northern Illinois footprint and established Republican voting patterns create a durable structural advantage for the incumbent, whose family has held the seat for decades. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, consistent with the seat’s partisan lean and LaHood’s low-profile reelection record. With the general election still six months away and no major Democratic challenger emerging, trader consensus reflects these entrenched factors rather than any recent campaign shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,709End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood secured the party nomination for Illinois’s 16th congressional district in the March 17 primary with near-unanimous support, while Democrat Paul Nolley advanced unopposed on the other side. The district’s rural northern Illinois footprint and established Republican voting patterns create a durable structural advantage for the incumbent, whose family has held the seat for decades. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, consistent with the seat’s partisan lean and LaHood’s low-profile reelection record. With the general election still six months away and no major Democratic challenger emerging, trader consensus reflects these entrenched factors rather than any recent campaign shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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