Amid heightened US-Iran tensions following strikes on Iranian military targets since late February 2026, Iran partially reopened its airspace on April 21 after an initial closure, with commercial flights resuming under restrictions. Recent US deployments of tankers and fighter jets over the Strait of Hormuz on May 4 and Secretary Rubio's May 5 remarks highlighting the destruction of Iran's navy and air defenses have fueled escalation fears, prompting UAE airspace restrictions after intercepting Iranian missiles. De-escalation signals, including Saudi diplomatic pressure and potential ceasefire talks, have prevented full closures, while traders monitor Trump's upcoming China summit for cues on further military actions or sanctions that could trigger shutdowns. Partial restrictions persist, but no total commercial transit halt has materialized in the past 30 days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIranian aviation authorities issue new notices on airspace restrictions amid security alerts
May 31 jumps to 41%9%
New official notices about airspace restrictions amid heightened security alerts increased market expectations of a possible major closure.
Airlines continue cancellations and rerouting amid ongoing regional tensions
May 31 jumps to 38%8%
Ongoing airline disruptions and cautious official statements kept the market's probability moderate, reflecting uncertainty about a potential major closure.
Iran resumes limited airspace restrictions after missile strikes on UAE
May 31 drops to 27%7%
Following missile strikes, Iran reinstated some airspace restrictions, but these were limited and did not constitute a major closure, causing mixed market reactions.
No official Iranian government or civil aviation announcements of a major airspace closure;
May 8 dips to 2%1%
commercial flights continued operating normally or with limited restrictions not meeting the "major closure" criteria; market
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian
May 7 drops to 0%7%
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian government order closing the airspace, leading traders to push the Yes
Minor temporary uptick to 7% possibly due to short-term rumors or geopolitical concerns, but no verifiable news of a major closure emerged;
May 8 rises to 7%4%
market quickly corrected downward
Partial airspace closures near Strait of Hormuz reported, no broad closure
May 31 jumps to 40%13%
Reports of partial closures for military drills near the Strait of Hormuz increased concerns about escalation, pushing
Polymarket data shows five Iranian carriers resuming limited operations after a brief restriction for military drills, reinforcing the view that a broader shutdown is unlikely and
Polymarket data shows five Iranian carriers resuming limited operations after a brief restriction for military drills, reinforcing the view that a broader shutdown is unlikely and further driving the
A senior Iranian military official warns that “any further escalation could lead to a nationwide airspace shutdown,” sparking a brief rise in Yes‑probability on the market
May 7 rises to 6%3%
A senior Iranian military official warns that “any further escalation could lead to a nationwide airspace shutdown,” sparking a brief rise in Yes‑probability on the market
Market reassesses after Iranian authorities clarify limited airspace restrictions
May 31 drops to 27%11%
Clarifications from Iranian aviation authorities indicated that closures were targeted and temporary, not a full major closure, leading to a market correction downward.
U.S. officials confirmed that a diplomatic de‑escalation effort had delayed any planned large‑scale Iranian airspace shutdown, causing the market to settle slightly lower
May 31 dips to 52%3%
U.S. officials confirmed that a diplomatic de‑escalation effort had delayed any planned large‑scale Iranian airspace shutdown, causing the market to settle slightly lower
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to
May 7 jumps to 7%6%
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to bid up the Yes
Airlines including Air India and IndiGo reroute flights due to Iran airspace closure
May 31 plunges to 38%24%
Major Indian carriers announced rerouting and cancellations following Iran's airspace closure announcements, confirming operational disruptions but with some uncertainty about the closure's scope, causing
Iran issues a temporary restriction on civilian flights within the Tehran FIR, allowing only pre‑authorized international traffic;
May 15 dips to 4%4%
the notice is brief and does not affect the majority of commercial airports
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements
May 8 plunges to 10%17%
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements materialized; absence of qualifying closure news caused
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major
May 31 surges to 59%18%
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major airports (IKA, MHD) grounded
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice,
May 31 dips to 55%4%
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice, pushing the market back up
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting UAE airspace restrictions
May 31 surges to 62%22%
Iran's missile and drone attacks on the UAE led to renewed UAE airspace restrictions and increased regional tensions, significantly raising the probability of Iran imposing a major airspace closure.
A senior Iranian military official warned that “any further escalation could lead to a nationwide airspace shutdown,” sparking a brief rise in Yes‑probability
May 31 dips to 41%3%
A senior Iranian military official warned that “any further escalation could lead to a nationwide airspace shutdown,” sparking a brief rise in Yes‑probability
Reports emerge of increased military activity near Iranian airspace
May 31 drops to 31%11%
News of military drills and missile tests near Iranian airspace led to partial airspace restrictions but no major closure, causing a market dip as the risk of a full closure appeared lower.
Airlines Air India and IndiGo reported cancellations of several long‑haul services after the Iranian restriction was confirmed to affect flights over both IKA and THR
May 31 drops to 36%11%
Airlines Air India and IndiGo reported cancellations of several long‑haul services after the Iranian restriction was confirmed to affect flights over both IKA and THR
Reuters quoted Flightradar24 data showing that, on the same day, five Iranian carriers resumed limited operations, prompting traders to reassess the likelihood of a full closure
May 31 jumps to 44%8%
Reuters quoted Flightradar24 data showing that, on the same day, five Iranian carriers resumed limited operations, prompting traders to reassess the likelihood of a full closure
Iran issues temporary airspace restrictions amid regional tensions
May 31 rises to 42%4%
Iran's Civil Aviation Authority announced temporary restrictions on airspace access affecting commercial flights, signaling heightened security concerns and raising market expectations of a possible broader closure.
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate
May 8 dips to 21%3%
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate market optimism (around 24%) that a closure might occur
Iran’s civil aviation authority issued a notice extending the temporary restriction on Tehran’s Flight Information Region, allowing only pre‑approved international flights and
May 31 jumps to 47%9%
Iran’s civil aviation authority issued a notice extending the temporary restriction on Tehran’s Flight Information Region, allowing only pre‑approved international flights and suspending all domestic commercial traffic
Reuters reports a temporary cancellation of flights over Iran’s western airspace, a regional measure that does not meet the market’s “major closure” definition
May 15 dips to 8%3%
Reuters reports a temporary cancellation of flights over Iran’s western airspace, a regional measure that does not meet the market’s “major closure” definition
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad
May 15 drops to 14%6%
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad suspension
Middle East airspace shuts after US‑Israel strike on Iran;
May 15 drops to 27%5%
Iran closes its airspace to civilian traffic, prompting fears of a broad closure that pushed the market up
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes
May 15 dips to 11%3%
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes and not a nationwide suspension
Iran’s Civil Aviation Authority issues a statement confirming that the February 28 closure was temporary and that no additional restrictions are planned for May
May 15 drops to 13%9%
Iran’s Civil Aviation Authority issues a statement confirming that the February 28 closure was temporary and that no additional restrictions are planned for May
Iran reopens its airspace after a five‑hour shutdown, with commercial flights resuming and no further closure announced
May 15 drops to 22%5%
Iran reopens its airspace after a five‑hour shutdown, with commercial flights resuming and no further closure announced
Iran reopens its airspace after a five‑hour shutdown, with carriers resuming services and officials citing “escalating US‑Iran tensions” as the trigger
May 15 drops to 20%12%
Iran reopens its airspace after a five‑hour shutdown, with carriers resuming services and officials citing “escalating US‑Iran tensions” as the trigger
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions