Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures. Partial reopenings of Ben Gurion Airport with capacity limits have occurred since March, alongside extended NOTAM restrictions through mid-April. Recent Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, coupled with Hezbollah's reported FPV drone attacks on northern Israeli sites, sustain security monitoring. Lufthansa's announced resumption of flights to Israel in June has contributed to tempered probabilities for a major closure by late May, as traders weigh these signals against risks of renewed escalation or retaliatory activity within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$887,873 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
32%
June 30
48%
$887,873 Vol.
May 31
$383,723 Vol.
32%
June 30
$8,957 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures. Partial reopenings of Ben Gurion Airport with capacity limits have occurred since March, alongside extended NOTAM restrictions through mid-April. Recent Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, coupled with Hezbollah's reported FPV drone attacks on northern Israeli sites, sustain security monitoring. Lufthansa's announced resumption of flights to Israel in June has contributed to tempered probabilities for a major closure by late May, as traders weigh these signals against risks of renewed escalation or retaliatory activity within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volume
$887,873End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures. Partial reopenings of Ben Gurion Airport with capacity limits have occurred since March, alongside extended NOTAM restrictions through mid-April. Recent Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, coupled with Hezbollah's reported FPV drone attacks on northern Israeli sites, sustain security monitoring. Lufthansa's announced resumption of flights to Israel in June has contributed to tempered probabilities for a major closure by late May, as traders weigh these signals against risks of renewed escalation or retaliatory activity within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$887,873End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures. Partial reopenings of Ben Gurion Airport with capacity limits have occurred since March, alongside extended NOTAM restrictions through mid-April. Recent Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, coupled with Hezbollah's reported FPV drone attacks on northern Israeli sites, sustain security monitoring. Lufthansa's announced resumption of flights to Israel in June has contributed to tempered probabilities for a major closure by late May, as traders weigh these signals against risks of renewed escalation or retaliatory activity within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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