Recent polling shows Yashar and Likud trading narrow leads for first place while bloc totals remain tightly contested around 51-53 seats each, leaving second place open amid high fragmentation. The Reservists-Economic Party, Amcha Yisrael, Noam and similar lists hover near or just above the 3.25% threshold in inconsistent surveys, with outcomes sensitive to turnout among reservists, security-focused voters and those prioritizing conscription reform or living costs. Court rulings allowing Arab lists to run, renewed emphasis on Gaza perimeter control and Haredi draft debates have narrowed bloc gaps without clarifying smaller-party rankings. Traders price these contenders highest because last-minute shifts on these issues could elevate any one of them into second while established mid-tier parties stay flat.