Security concerns have risen sharply in recent Israeli polling, tightening competition among mid-sized parties and leaving traders' implied probabilities for third place clustered tightly around Yisrael Beiteinu and Otzma Yehudit. Recent surveys place both lists in the 7–9 seat range on average, just behind B’Yachad (Together) and well clear of smaller lists still hovering near or below the 3.25% threshold. With the election only weeks away, modest swings in undecided or threshold voters, shifts in turnout among nationalist or Russian-speaking blocs, or last-minute security developments could reorder the middle of the field. The narrow spreads in the market reflect this ongoing volatility rather than any settled hierarchy.