The market reflects trader expectations of limited output from official Khamenei.ir X accounts (primarily @khamenei_ir and affiliated channels) during the August 28–September 4 window. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father as Supreme Leader following the latter’s 2026 martyrdom amid U.S.-Israel conflict, issues statements sparingly through institutional channels rather than personal posting. Recent developments center on ongoing 40th-day commemorations and occasional messages on national or religious themes, with no major policy announcements, summits, or escalations scheduled that typically trigger higher volume. Historical patterns show the accounts averaging under one post per day absent crises, supporting the 70% consensus on fewer than five posts. Geopolitical signals or internal Iranian events could still prompt additional releases, but the current low-activity baseline drives the distribution favoring minimal output.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts August 28 - September 4, 2026?
Khamenei # posts August 28 - September 4, 2026?
<5 70%
5-9 14%
10-14 5.0%
25-29 4.7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
<5
70%
5-9
14%
10-14
5%
15-19
1%
20-24
4%
25-29
5%
30-34
4%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
<1%
<5 70%
5-9 14%
10-14 5.0%
25-29 4.7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
<5
$1,754 Vol.
70%
5-9
$507 Vol.
14%
10-14
$242 Vol.
5%
15-19
$202 Vol.
1%
20-24
$186 Vol.
4%
25-29
$199 Vol.
5%
30-34
$186 Vol.
4%
35-39
$208 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$171 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$171 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$176 Vol.
1%
55-59
$176 Vol.
1%
60+
$154 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 28, 12:00 PM ET and September 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The market reflects trader expectations of limited output from official Khamenei.ir X accounts (primarily @khamenei_ir and affiliated channels) during the August 28–September 4 window. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father as Supreme Leader following the latter’s 2026 martyrdom amid U.S.-Israel conflict, issues statements sparingly through institutional channels rather than personal posting. Recent developments center on ongoing 40th-day commemorations and occasional messages on national or religious themes, with no major policy announcements, summits, or escalations scheduled that typically trigger higher volume. Historical patterns show the accounts averaging under one post per day absent crises, supporting the 70% consensus on fewer than five posts. Geopolitical signals or internal Iranian events could still prompt additional releases, but the current low-activity baseline drives the distribution favoring minimal output.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 28, 12:00 PM ET and September 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$4,333End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 28, 12:00 PM ET and September 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The market reflects trader expectations of limited output from official Khamenei.ir X accounts (primarily @khamenei_ir and affiliated channels) during the August 28–September 4 window. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father as Supreme Leader following the latter’s 2026 martyrdom amid U.S.-Israel conflict, issues statements sparingly through institutional channels rather than personal posting. Recent developments center on ongoing 40th-day commemorations and occasional messages on national or religious themes, with no major policy announcements, summits, or escalations scheduled that typically trigger higher volume. Historical patterns show the accounts averaging under one post per day absent crises, supporting the 70% consensus on fewer than five posts. Geopolitical signals or internal Iranian events could still prompt additional releases, but the current low-activity baseline drives the distribution favoring minimal output.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 28, 12:00 PM ET and September 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$4,333End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market reflects trader expectations of limited output from official Khamenei.ir X accounts (primarily @khamenei_ir and affiliated channels) during the August 28–September 4 window. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father as Supreme Leader following the latter’s 2026 martyrdom amid U.S.-Israel conflict, issues statements sparingly through institutional channels rather than personal posting. Recent developments center on ongoing 40th-day commemorations and occasional messages on national or religious themes, with no major policy announcements, summits, or escalations scheduled that typically trigger higher volume. Historical patterns show the accounts averaging under one post per day absent crises, supporting the 70% consensus on fewer than five posts. Geopolitical signals or internal Iranian events could still prompt additional releases, but the current low-activity baseline drives the distribution favoring minimal output.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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