Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to fewer than five posts by the @khamenei_ir account during the May 12–19 window because the platform has sustained a low-volume, archival pattern since the February 2026 transition. Official statements on ideological and regional issues continue to appear only sporadically, with no major diplomatic summits, military escalations, or institutional announcements scheduled that would trigger elevated activity. Historical base rates from comparable weeks show the account typically issues zero to four updates unless tied to specific commemorations or policy shifts, keeping the implied probability of higher ranges minimal absent sudden developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?
Khamenei # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?
<5 82%
5-9 4%
15-19 3.0%
10-14 1.5%
$11,819 Vol.
$11,819 Vol.
May 19, 2026
<5
88%
5-9
12%
10-14
1%
15-19
3%
20-24
1%
25-29
<1%
30-34
1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 82%
5-9 4%
15-19 3.0%
10-14 1.5%
$11,819 Vol.
$11,819 Vol.
May 19, 2026
<5
$2,252 Vol.
88%
5-9
$1,991 Vol.
12%
10-14
$981 Vol.
1%
15-19
$1,493 Vol.
3%
20-24
$946 Vol.
1%
25-29
$401 Vol.
<1%
30-34
$458 Vol.
1%
35-39
$443 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$596 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$484 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$498 Vol.
<1%
55-59
$609 Vol.
<1%
60+
$666 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to fewer than five posts by the @khamenei_ir account during the May 12–19 window because the platform has sustained a low-volume, archival pattern since the February 2026 transition. Official statements on ideological and regional issues continue to appear only sporadically, with no major diplomatic summits, military escalations, or institutional announcements scheduled that would trigger elevated activity. Historical base rates from comparable weeks show the account typically issues zero to four updates unless tied to specific commemorations or policy shifts, keeping the implied probability of higher ranges minimal absent sudden developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ET
Volume
$11,819End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to fewer than five posts by the @khamenei_ir account during the May 12–19 window because the platform has sustained a low-volume, archival pattern since the February 2026 transition. Official statements on ideological and regional issues continue to appear only sporadically, with no major diplomatic summits, military escalations, or institutional announcements scheduled that would trigger elevated activity. Historical base rates from comparable weeks show the account typically issues zero to four updates unless tied to specific commemorations or policy shifts, keeping the implied probability of higher ranges minimal absent sudden developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$11,819End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to fewer than five posts by the @khamenei_ir account during the May 12–19 window because the platform has sustained a low-volume, archival pattern since the February 2026 transition. Official statements on ideological and regional issues continue to appear only sporadically, with no major diplomatic summits, military escalations, or institutional announcements scheduled that would trigger elevated activity. Historical base rates from comparable weeks show the account typically issues zero to four updates unless tied to specific commemorations or policy shifts, keeping the implied probability of higher ranges minimal absent sudden developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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