Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official communications on social media channels show a narrow balance between minimal and moderate activity levels during the May 15-22 window, with traders viewing volumes under five or five to nine posts as the most probable outcomes. Steady regional diplomatic signals and standard policy statements from Iranian institutions have produced no immediate surge in direct output from the Supreme Leader. Historical patterns indicate low baseline posting frequency absent major escalations or required formal responses. Upcoming developments such as shifts in security postures, multilateral talks, or domestic announcements could increase volume and separate the leading ranges. The tight pricing captures the current absence of overriding catalysts while reflecting uncertainty around potential triggers within the resolution period.