Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) has posted zero times from May 8-13, 2026, driving trader consensus to price fewer than 5 posts at 98.3% implied probability for the full May 8-15 window. This reflects the account's post-martyrdom dormancy since his confirmed death in early March airstrikes, with sporadic reposts of archival statements—two in early May (May 4-5) and six scattered through April—averaging under one per week amid Iran's leadership transition. No new geopolitical catalysts or religious observances have spurred activity in the past week. A commanding lead persists barring an unlikely surge from successor directives, major diplomatic announcements, or commemorative bursts before May 15 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts May 8 - May 15, 2026?
Khamenei # posts May 8 - May 15, 2026?
<5 98.2%
5-9 1.9%
30-34 <1%
45-49 <1%
$10,522 Vol.
$10,522 Vol.
May 15, 2026
<5
98%
5-9
2%
10-14
1%
15-19
1%
20-24
<1%
25-29
<1%
30-34
1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 98.2%
5-9 1.9%
30-34 <1%
45-49 <1%
$10,522 Vol.
$10,522 Vol.
May 15, 2026
<5
$1,664 Vol.
98%
5-9
$555 Vol.
2%
10-14
$576 Vol.
1%
15-19
$727 Vol.
1%
20-24
$1,026 Vol.
<1%
25-29
$344 Vol.
<1%
30-34
$609 Vol.
1%
35-39
$670 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$685 Vol.
1%
45-49
$1,022 Vol.
1%
50-54
$1,165 Vol.
1%
55-59
$793 Vol.
<1%
60+
$686 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) has posted zero times from May 8-13, 2026, driving trader consensus to price fewer than 5 posts at 98.3% implied probability for the full May 8-15 window. This reflects the account's post-martyrdom dormancy since his confirmed death in early March airstrikes, with sporadic reposts of archival statements—two in early May (May 4-5) and six scattered through April—averaging under one per week amid Iran's leadership transition. No new geopolitical catalysts or religious observances have spurred activity in the past week. A commanding lead persists barring an unlikely surge from successor directives, major diplomatic announcements, or commemorative bursts before May 15 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$10,522End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) has posted zero times from May 8-13, 2026, driving trader consensus to price fewer than 5 posts at 98.3% implied probability for the full May 8-15 window. This reflects the account's post-martyrdom dormancy since his confirmed death in early March airstrikes, with sporadic reposts of archival statements—two in early May (May 4-5) and six scattered through April—averaging under one per week amid Iran's leadership transition. No new geopolitical catalysts or religious observances have spurred activity in the past week. A commanding lead persists barring an unlikely surge from successor directives, major diplomatic announcements, or commemorative bursts before May 15 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$10,522End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) has posted zero times from May 8-13, 2026, driving trader consensus to price fewer than 5 posts at 98.3% implied probability for the full May 8-15 window. This reflects the account's post-martyrdom dormancy since his confirmed death in early March airstrikes, with sporadic reposts of archival statements—two in early May (May 4-5) and six scattered through April—averaging under one per week amid Iran's leadership transition. No new geopolitical catalysts or religious observances have spurred activity in the past week. A commanding lead persists barring an unlikely surge from successor directives, major diplomatic announcements, or commemorative bursts before May 15 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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