**Forecast models for Cape Town on August 31, 2026, point to a daily minimum near 9–11°C under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds, driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around 8–10°C.** Clear conditions after recent frontal passages promote strong nighttime radiative cooling, with dew points near 6–8°C limiting how far temperatures can fall before saturation. High pressure and stable airflow from the south suppress cold advection, keeping the air mass mild compared with earlier August variability that included sharper drops. Traders appear to balance ensemble spreads showing slight differences in overnight cooling rates—calmer winds and drier air could push the low toward 8°C, while modest cloud or wind remnants might hold it near 10°C. Historical winter baselines for late August minima (typically 8–12°C) provide context, but the current setup lacks strong cold-air intrusions, leaving the precise threshold sensitive to small forecast adjustments in the final model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 31?
6°C 49%
7°C 49%
11°C 49%
8°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
5°C or below
19%
6°C
49%
7°C
49%
8°C
30%
9°C
30%
10°C
25%
11°C
49%
12°C
2%
13°C
15%
14°C
15%
15°C or higher
10%
6°C 49%
7°C 49%
11°C 49%
8°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
19%
6°C
$0 Vol.
49%
7°C
$0 Vol.
49%
8°C
$0 Vol.
30%
9°C
$0 Vol.
30%
10°C
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$0 Vol.
2%
13°C
$0 Vol.
15%
14°C
$0 Vol.
15%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Cape Town on August 31, 2026, point to a daily minimum near 9–11°C under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds, driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around 8–10°C.**
Clear conditions after recent frontal passages promote strong nighttime radiative cooling, with dew points near 6–8°C limiting how far temperatures can fall before saturation. High pressure and stable airflow from the south suppress cold advection, keeping the air mass mild compared with earlier August variability that included sharper drops.
Traders appear to balance ensemble spreads showing slight differences in overnight cooling rates—calmer winds and drier air could push the low toward 8°C, while modest cloud or wind remnants might hold it near 10°C. Historical winter baselines for late August minima (typically 8–12°C) provide context, but the current setup lacks strong cold-air intrusions, leaving the precise threshold sensitive to small forecast adjustments in the final model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Cape Town on August 31, 2026, point to a daily minimum near 9–11°C under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds, driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around 8–10°C.**
Clear conditions after recent frontal passages promote strong nighttime radiative cooling, with dew points near 6–8°C limiting how far temperatures can fall before saturation. High pressure and stable airflow from the south suppress cold advection, keeping the air mass mild compared with earlier August variability that included sharper drops.
Traders appear to balance ensemble spreads showing slight differences in overnight cooling rates—calmer winds and drier air could push the low toward 8°C, while modest cloud or wind remnants might hold it near 10°C. Historical winter baselines for late August minima (typically 8–12°C) provide context, but the current setup lacks strong cold-air intrusions, leaving the precise threshold sensitive to small forecast adjustments in the final model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models for Cape Town on August 31, 2026, point to a daily minimum near 9–11°C under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds, driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around 8–10°C.** Clear conditions after recent frontal passages promote strong nighttime radiative cooling, with dew points near 6–8°C limiting how far temperatures can fall before saturation. High pressure and stable airflow from the south suppress cold advection, keeping the air mass mild compared with earlier August variability that included sharper drops. Traders appear to balance ensemble spreads showing slight differences in overnight cooling rates—calmer winds and drier air could push the low toward 8°C, while modest cloud or wind remnants might hold it near 10°C. Historical winter baselines for late August minima (typically 8–12°C) provide context, but the current setup lacks strong cold-air intrusions, leaving the precise threshold sensitive to small forecast adjustments in the final model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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