Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a precise minimum of 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. In Hong Kong’s subtropical climate, mid-May overnight lows typically stabilize between 24–27°C under persistent high pressure from the South China Sea, with minimal northerly wind or cloud cover to enhance radiative cooling. Traders have rapidly incorporated this verified station data rather than relying on forecasts, reflecting the resolution criteria tied directly to the official daily minimum. Realistic challenges would require an improbable clearing of skies and calm winds before dawn, potentially allowing a dip to 24°C, though historical analogs show such deviations occur infrequently in this period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 Vol.
$63,971 Vol.
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 Vol.
$63,971 Vol.
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
$2,541 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,325 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,408 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,288 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,899 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,193 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$12,287 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$8,673 Vol.
100%
26°C
$12,015 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$8,229 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$4,112 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a precise minimum of 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. In Hong Kong’s subtropical climate, mid-May overnight lows typically stabilize between 24–27°C under persistent high pressure from the South China Sea, with minimal northerly wind or cloud cover to enhance radiative cooling. Traders have rapidly incorporated this verified station data rather than relying on forecasts, reflecting the resolution criteria tied directly to the official daily minimum. Realistic challenges would require an improbable clearing of skies and calm winds before dawn, potentially allowing a dip to 24°C, though historical analogs show such deviations occur infrequently in this period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$63,971End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a precise minimum of 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. In Hong Kong’s subtropical climate, mid-May overnight lows typically stabilize between 24–27°C under persistent high pressure from the South China Sea, with minimal northerly wind or cloud cover to enhance radiative cooling. Traders have rapidly incorporated this verified station data rather than relying on forecasts, reflecting the resolution criteria tied directly to the official daily minimum. Realistic challenges would require an improbable clearing of skies and calm winds before dawn, potentially allowing a dip to 24°C, though historical analogs show such deviations occur infrequently in this period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$63,971End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a precise minimum of 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. In Hong Kong’s subtropical climate, mid-May overnight lows typically stabilize between 24–27°C under persistent high pressure from the South China Sea, with minimal northerly wind or cloud cover to enhance radiative cooling. Traders have rapidly incorporated this verified station data rather than relying on forecasts, reflecting the resolution criteria tied directly to the official daily minimum. Realistic challenges would require an improbable clearing of skies and calm winds before dawn, potentially allowing a dip to 24°C, though historical analogs show such deviations occur infrequently in this period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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