Recent forecasts from major models indicate overnight lows in Milan around 18–22°C for August 26 amid a persistent warm Po Valley pattern, with daytime highs near 30–31°C supporting limited nocturnal cooling. This setup, combined with urban heat island effects and light winds, underpins trader emphasis on the 14°C-or-below outcome at 31.5% while keeping 18–20°C brackets competitive near 25–26%. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs introduce uncertainty around exact minimum thresholds, as small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could alter radiative cooling. Historical August minima average near 17–19°C, providing context for the market’s tight clustering across mid-teens to low-20s Celsius. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 26?
14°C or below 63%
16°C 41%
17°C 41%
21°C 41%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
63%
15°C
22%
16°C
41%
17°C
41%
18°C
27%
19°C
27%
20°C
26%
21°C
41%
22°C
41%
23°C
20%
24°C or higher
1%
14°C or below 63%
16°C 41%
17°C 41%
21°C 41%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
$130 Vol.
63%
15°C
$130 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
41%
17°C
$0 Vol.
41%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
41%
22°C
$0 Vol.
41%
23°C
$0 Vol.
20%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from major models indicate overnight lows in Milan around 18–22°C for August 26 amid a persistent warm Po Valley pattern, with daytime highs near 30–31°C supporting limited nocturnal cooling. This setup, combined with urban heat island effects and light winds, underpins trader emphasis on the 14°C-or-below outcome at 31.5% while keeping 18–20°C brackets competitive near 25–26%. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs introduce uncertainty around exact minimum thresholds, as small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could alter radiative cooling. Historical August minima average near 17–19°C, providing context for the market’s tight clustering across mid-teens to low-20s Celsius. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$260End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from major models indicate overnight lows in Milan around 18–22°C for August 26 amid a persistent warm Po Valley pattern, with daytime highs near 30–31°C supporting limited nocturnal cooling. This setup, combined with urban heat island effects and light winds, underpins trader emphasis on the 14°C-or-below outcome at 31.5% while keeping 18–20°C brackets competitive near 25–26%. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs introduce uncertainty around exact minimum thresholds, as small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could alter radiative cooling. Historical August minima average near 17–19°C, providing context for the market’s tight clustering across mid-teens to low-20s Celsius. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$260End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from major models indicate overnight lows in Milan around 18–22°C for August 26 amid a persistent warm Po Valley pattern, with daytime highs near 30–31°C supporting limited nocturnal cooling. This setup, combined with urban heat island effects and light winds, underpins trader emphasis on the 14°C-or-below outcome at 31.5% while keeping 18–20°C brackets competitive near 25–26%. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs introduce uncertainty around exact minimum thresholds, as small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could alter radiative cooling. Historical August minima average near 17–19°C, providing context for the market’s tight clustering across mid-teens to low-20s Celsius. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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