Current forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and GFS indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on September 5 will likely range 12–14°C under cloudy skies with rain and southwesterly winds, driven by a transient low-pressure system. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities—39% for 19°C or higher versus 38.5% for 9°C or below—highlights genuine uncertainty in model runs regarding exact cooling overnight. This aligns with seasonal norms near 10°C but shows warmer-than-average conditions from recent atmospheric patterns. Further model updates and observational data releases over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution on the daily low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 5?
19°C or higher 85%
9°C or below 84%
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
9°C or below
84%
10°C
28%
11°C
27%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
50%
15°C
50%
16°C
50%
17°C
50%
18°C
50%
19°C or higher
85%
19°C or higher 85%
9°C or below 84%
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
84%
10°C
$2 Vol.
28%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
50%
15°C
$0 Vol.
50%
16°C
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C
$0 Vol.
50%
18°C
$0 Vol.
50%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and GFS indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on September 5 will likely range 12–14°C under cloudy skies with rain and southwesterly winds, driven by a transient low-pressure system. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities—39% for 19°C or higher versus 38.5% for 9°C or below—highlights genuine uncertainty in model runs regarding exact cooling overnight. This aligns with seasonal norms near 10°C but shows warmer-than-average conditions from recent atmospheric patterns. Further model updates and observational data releases over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution on the daily low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$2End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and GFS indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on September 5 will likely range 12–14°C under cloudy skies with rain and southwesterly winds, driven by a transient low-pressure system. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities—39% for 19°C or higher versus 38.5% for 9°C or below—highlights genuine uncertainty in model runs regarding exact cooling overnight. This aligns with seasonal norms near 10°C but shows warmer-than-average conditions from recent atmospheric patterns. Further model updates and observational data releases over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution on the daily low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and GFS indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on September 5 will likely range 12–14°C under cloudy skies with rain and southwesterly winds, driven by a transient low-pressure system. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities—39% for 19°C or higher versus 38.5% for 9°C or below—highlights genuine uncertainty in model runs regarding exact cooling overnight. This aligns with seasonal norms near 10°C but shows warmer-than-average conditions from recent atmospheric patterns. Further model updates and observational data releases over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution on the daily low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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