Tightly clustered market-implied odds around 24–26°C for Panama City’s lowest temperature on August 29 reflect ensemble forecast consensus amid typical rainy-season conditions. Persistent high humidity and dew points near 24°C suppress nocturnal radiative cooling, while scattered convection tied to the Intertropical Convergence Zone produces variable cloud cover that modulates overnight heat loss. Numerical weather prediction models show modest spread in simulated cloud fraction and precipitation timing, keeping the range of possible minima narrow. Historical August lows average near 24°C, providing a stable baseline that further compresses probabilities. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Panama City on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Panama City on August 29?
29°C or higher 86%
19°C or below 85%
21°C 84%
22°C 84%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
85%
20°C
47%
21°C
84%
22°C
84%
23°C
45%
24°C
45%
25°C
46%
26°C
45%
27°C
45%
28°C
42%
29°C or higher
86%
29°C or higher 86%
19°C or below 85%
21°C 84%
22°C 84%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
$5 Vol.
85%
20°C
$5 Vol.
47%
21°C
$5 Vol.
84%
22°C
$5 Vol.
84%
23°C
$0 Vol.
45%
24°C
$0 Vol.
45%
25°C
$0 Vol.
46%
26°C
$0 Vol.
45%
27°C
$0 Vol.
45%
28°C
$5 Vol.
42%
29°C or higher
$5 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tightly clustered market-implied odds around 24–26°C for Panama City’s lowest temperature on August 29 reflect ensemble forecast consensus amid typical rainy-season conditions. Persistent high humidity and dew points near 24°C suppress nocturnal radiative cooling, while scattered convection tied to the Intertropical Convergence Zone produces variable cloud cover that modulates overnight heat loss. Numerical weather prediction models show modest spread in simulated cloud fraction and precipitation timing, keeping the range of possible minima narrow. Historical August lows average near 24°C, providing a stable baseline that further compresses probabilities. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tightly clustered market-implied odds around 24–26°C for Panama City’s lowest temperature on August 29 reflect ensemble forecast consensus amid typical rainy-season conditions. Persistent high humidity and dew points near 24°C suppress nocturnal radiative cooling, while scattered convection tied to the Intertropical Convergence Zone produces variable cloud cover that modulates overnight heat loss. Numerical weather prediction models show modest spread in simulated cloud fraction and precipitation timing, keeping the range of possible minima narrow. Historical August lows average near 24°C, providing a stable baseline that further compresses probabilities. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tightly clustered market-implied odds around 24–26°C for Panama City’s lowest temperature on August 29 reflect ensemble forecast consensus amid typical rainy-season conditions. Persistent high humidity and dew points near 24°C suppress nocturnal radiative cooling, while scattered convection tied to the Intertropical Convergence Zone produces variable cloud cover that modulates overnight heat loss. Numerical weather prediction models show modest spread in simulated cloud fraction and precipitation timing, keeping the range of possible minima narrow. Historical August lows average near 24°C, providing a stable baseline that further compresses probabilities. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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