Current National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for San Francisco on August 25 points to overnight lows of 57–59 °F, driven by persistent onshore flow and marine-layer stratus that limit radiational cooling. Ensemble model consensus supports this narrow range, consistent with August climatology where average minima sit near 57 °F at the official airport station. Recent days have shown stable conditions without significant troughing or offshore flow that could push readings into the mid-50s or low-60s, keeping the 58–59 °F bin as the clear market leader at 51.5 % implied probability. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and historical analogs over longer-range uncertainty, with upcoming evening forecast updates likely to refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 25?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 25?
58-59°F 52%
56-57°F 26%
64-65°F 24%
60-61°F 23%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
10%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
12%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
26%
58-59°F
52%
60-61°F
23%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
24%
66-67°F
2%
68°F or higher
9%
58-59°F 52%
56-57°F 26%
64-65°F 24%
60-61°F 23%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
$5 Vol.
10%
50-51°F
$65 Vol.
2%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
12%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
12%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
26%
58-59°F
$11 Vol.
52%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
23%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
12%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
24%
66-67°F
$5 Vol.
2%
68°F or higher
$5 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for San Francisco on August 25 points to overnight lows of 57–59 °F, driven by persistent onshore flow and marine-layer stratus that limit radiational cooling. Ensemble model consensus supports this narrow range, consistent with August climatology where average minima sit near 57 °F at the official airport station. Recent days have shown stable conditions without significant troughing or offshore flow that could push readings into the mid-50s or low-60s, keeping the 58–59 °F bin as the clear market leader at 51.5 % implied probability. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and historical analogs over longer-range uncertainty, with upcoming evening forecast updates likely to refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$91End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for San Francisco on August 25 points to overnight lows of 57–59 °F, driven by persistent onshore flow and marine-layer stratus that limit radiational cooling. Ensemble model consensus supports this narrow range, consistent with August climatology where average minima sit near 57 °F at the official airport station. Recent days have shown stable conditions without significant troughing or offshore flow that could push readings into the mid-50s or low-60s, keeping the 58–59 °F bin as the clear market leader at 51.5 % implied probability. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and historical analogs over longer-range uncertainty, with upcoming evening forecast updates likely to refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$91End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for San Francisco on August 25 points to overnight lows of 57–59 °F, driven by persistent onshore flow and marine-layer stratus that limit radiational cooling. Ensemble model consensus supports this narrow range, consistent with August climatology where average minima sit near 57 °F at the official airport station. Recent days have shown stable conditions without significant troughing or offshore flow that could push readings into the mid-50s or low-60s, keeping the 58–59 °F bin as the clear market leader at 51.5 % implied probability. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and historical analogs over longer-range uncertainty, with upcoming evening forecast updates likely to refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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